AFTER much loss of civilian life and property, and the death of scores of combatants from both sides, it appears that Marawi City is slowly and inch-by-inch falling back into government control. We may be seeing the end of this particular extended skirmish in the coming days. But it is highly doubtful that the silencing of guns and bombs that will ensue after Marawi’s recapture in this instance will last that long.
It may not be Marawi that will be the target but as the Maute group withdraws and re-consolidate their forces, the cities of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro will certainly be among their list of targets. Chances are, it won’t be the same kind of urban assault and take over that they managed to pull off in Marawi since they do not have the same advantage in terms of access to logistics and familiarity with the terrain.
The fear is that we will see more of the same kind of indiscriminate terror such as the Davao bombing the previous year as a show of force until they are able to muster more resources and greater public support in their drive to establish a caliphate in Southern Philippines.
The gallant death of soldiers and the loss of innocent lives and property may turn out to be sacrifices to a pyrrhic victory given the deep and historical roots of conflict in the region. I am sure it is not lost among the war tacticians that there are short-term and long-term ends in any strategic plan to quell the rise of Isis-affiliated terror. The outright military response and the subsequent declaration of martial law revealed to us the short-term game plan of the Duterte administration. There are still no indications of the long-term plan to address the roots of Moro alienation which has been one of the well-springs of insurgency in the South for many decades.
The Marawi incident, however, reveals itself more and more as a trap no matter how you look at it. Months before, it has been floated that such an attack on Marawi was forthcoming with no less than President Duterte himself goading the Maute group. It seems that they have called his bluff with their brazen takeover of the city two weeks ago.
Latest reports from the field indicate that the Maute group prepositioned ammo and food in strategic areas of the city. They are also equipped with rocket-propelled grenades that could cause serious harm to the armed personnel carriers of the military. These government tanks are now modified with haphazardly mounted wood panels that they hope will arrest and trigger the shoulder-launched rocket charge before they pierce the thin armor of these vehicles only designed to stop bullets of a certain caliber.
Given the balance of forces, the Maute group knows that they can never win militarily against the far superior and better-equipped armed forces. But they know that if they occupy the city long enough, keep a critical mass of civilian hostages within a particularly area of the city by positioning snipers in strategic areas, and cause government to flatten the city with their bombs, they will be able to cause the kind of outcome that they desire.
Over the past weeks, we have seen the city of Marawi transformed into a landscape of twisted metal and rubble like that of the destroyed cities of Aleppo or Palestine. The dead lay in the streets and are eaten by dogs according to reports. As the economic, social, and cultural losses accrue and the body count rises, there has been a palpable shift in the opinion against the government campaign of Marawi residents forced to suffer the consequences of this terrible war none of them wished.
However, instead of laying the blame squarely on the Maute group which started the whole incident, many have started to look at the indiscriminate and disproportionate and outright militarist approach of government in dealing with the crisis as the primary cause of their suffering. Talk is also rife about government soldiers looting their homes and salvaging suspected terrorists captured.
All these maybe propaganda carefully managed and spread by the other side. However, these catch traction and shape public opinion precisely because of the deep and historical distrust that many Moro people have against government and its military, shaped over decades of neglect and conflict. This is precisely where the Maute group want to shift the theatre of conflict where government will be at a disadvantage and by all indications, it seems that Duterte and his generals may have fallen into that trap.
The battle of Marawi will see its end sooner than later but the war for the heart and soul of Muslim Mindanao is not over unfortunately. The site of conflict has now shifted from the rubble that is now Marawi to a new terrain altogether – the hearts and minds of the Bangsamoro people.