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Sunday, July 21, 2019

Echaves: Our world today

AMONG my favorite daily reads is Rappler.com. Its no-nonsense style of news gathering and objective analysis assures me of crystal-clear interpretation and acceptability of its take on the issue.

Take the recent poll survey results from the Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia (PA). While both show declines in President Rodrigo Duterte’s satisfaction ratings, there’s a 13-point difference between SWS and PA ratings.

Duterte’s approval ratings remain high, but they have declined in both surveys. SWS observes that the Sept. 24-30 survey shows his lowest on record, and the first time that his net satisfaction rating falls below the +60 mark.

SWS shows Duterte’s satisfaction rating at 67% while PA pegs it at 80%. Why the disparity, we ask. Filipinos who have polarized into pro- or anti-Duterte will nevertheless accept the rating that feeds their bias.

Rappler says that comparing the ratings is like comparing oranges with apples. So, let’s masticate further and slowly.

First, there’s satisfaction rating, gross rating, and net satisfaction rating. SWS gets the satisfaction rating and the dissatisfaction rating. It does not include the percentage for undecided.

The difference between the satisfied and the dissatisfied is the net satisfaction rating. Thus, in its survey, Duterte got a satisfaction rating of 67%, and a dissatisfaction rating of 19 %. The undecided marked 14 %.

The difference between the satisfied 67% and the dissatisfied 19% gave a net satisfaction rating of +48% for Duterte. This means that based on the country’s population, Duterte lost the support of at least 4 million Filipinos, the most conservative number, to a high of 14 million people.

The Pulse Asia survey, on the other hand, presented only the gross satisfaction ratings. It did not give the dissatisfaction rating, nor the percentage for the undecided. Thus, we the readers were not privy to Duterte’s net satisfaction rating under the PA survey.

Still, the decline in the PA survey is equivalent to between less than a million people to a high of 12 million people withdrawing support for Duterte.

Duterte, it says, does not pay attention to surveys. This self-described “karaang bugoy” should, especially because the bitter pills come from the sectors that catapulted him to the presidency, classes D and E.

In the SWS survey, Class D showed a 9-point decrease in satisfaction from March to September, a 5-point increase in dissatisfaction, and a 15-point decrease in net satisfaction.

Class E marked a 10-point decrease in satisfaction, a 15-point increase in dissatisfaction, and a 15-point increase in net satisfaction rating.

In the Visayas, the satisfied decreased by 11 points, the dissatisfied increased by 9 points, and the net satisfaction rating increased by 19 points.

And even in Duterte’s beloved Mindanao, the satisfied decreased by 7 points, the dissatisfied increased by 3 points, and the net satisfaction rating increased by 11 points.

The “karaang bugoy” should read the writing on the wall.
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