Abellanosa: A Gloriafied Philippine politics?

GLORIA Macapagal Arroyo’s assumption as Speaker of the House brings to mind a lot of unsettled issues in Philippine politics. We are awakened by the fact that Duterte has simply diverted issues of the past. He has not created a new narrative but simply silenced those that never had closure. Arroyo’s leadership reminds us of the so many loose ends in Philippine politics.

No political analyst can now claim that he has the predictive ability to forecast what’s going to happen next. Truth to tell, political analyses in the Philippines are almost always hindsight of what was done. GWF Hegel’s words aptly described the matter: “the owl of Minerva spreads its wings and takes its flight only when the shades of night are falling.”

The best thing to do now is to refresh our memory of GMA. Let us retrieve whatever stored memory we have of her, and speculate on some possibilities.

Gloria rose to the presidency because of EDSA DOS. If ever we have forgotten, its main characters included leaders of the Catholic Church especially the late Jaime Cardinal Sin. Cory Aquino was part of it but we know that they had a falling out.

In 2005, Gloria was asked to resign because of the “Hello Garci” issue. Civil society and the Left asked her to step down. Trillanes tried to stage a coup. So there was civil society, the Left, and the military. Obviously lacking was the support of the Bishops. Of course, it wasn’t a case of an all-out support by the CBCP. Factual observation would tell us that the Bishops were almost always not united in political issues. Though some members of the CBCP criticized GMA, she was in general terms not antagonized (like Marcos and Erap) by the Bishops. Who can forget the Pajero bishops?

In a Pastoral Letter in 2005, the Philippine Catholic bishops said that it is none of their business to interfere in matters that are purely political. They cited then newly elected Pope Benedict XVI who said in his first encyclical Deus Caritas Est, that politics and justice must be the achievement of the State and not the Church.

Certain bishops were kind to Gloria, and this is not a secret. The late Ricardo Cardinal Vidal took effort to mediate her reconciliation with former president Joseph Estrada, who was ousted by EDSA DOS. The Reproductive Health Bill was never passed under her administration. She signed RA 9346 which killed the Death Penalty Law in 2006. It was such a good news for the Filipino bishops who felt defeat by the execution of Leo Echegaray in 1999 just more or less a year before the Jubilee Year 2000 of Christianity.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has a mind of her own. We cannot be sure if all these data are significant variables enough for us to say about anything that would be earthshaking under her speakership.

But think about it or perhaps ask: what will be the scenario if you have a Philippine president who has been obviously known for his antagonism towards religion especially the Catholic bishops, and a Speaker of the House whose political career was partly an investment of the Church?

It is said that where there is no dualism there is totalitarianism. It would be interesting to see a political duality between Duterte and Gloria. After all, social change will not progress in the absence of an inherent contradiction.

Unfortunately, political analysts cannot claim to be as predictive as Nostradamus. Let us wait and see. One thing is for sure: a Gloriafied Philippine politics is going to be exciting.

A fearless forecast: Gloria is a crack in the wall of Duterte’s fortress. If this will allow the Bishops and the clergy more strategic moves... perhaps, this was the reason why Digong looked perplexed when he moved up the stage of Congress.