FR. Ranhilio Aquino, a member of the Consultative Committee on Charter Change, has advised President Duterte to fire Finance Secretary Sonny Dominguez and SocioEcon Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia. Aquino’s remark came after the two economic managers said something unfavorable to federalism. Dominguez described the draft of the ConCom as “confusing.” Pernia said that a shift to a federal system could wreak “havoc” to the economy.
Aquino’s advice is not only a dismissive gesture. It showed his lack of willingness to engage intellectually. In fact it was uncharacteristic for someone who is looked up to by some people as an academic. Though not a lawyer, Aquino considers himself a jurist – a scholar of the law in terms of its philosophy and spirit. As one he should know better the value of a “critique.” Unfortunately he argues like a politician. At best he can be an alternate spokesman to Harry Roque.
No one can close his eyes to the fact that a shift to Federalism is practically an economic concern. Self-autonomy, regional determination, and other non-tangible benefits of federalism are relative to economic growth and development. Should there be a good reason to federalize it is none other than the economic gains that the country would get from it. Else, why promise federalism if it will not make people’s quality of life better?
The problem however with Aquino and the other members of ConCom is that they keep on telling us about the pros of federalism in narrative and generic terms. I have not read so far of an argument that is economically convincing. By this I mean one that is based on reliable and valid economic projections. It is easy to speak of revenue sharing. But just because the word “revenue” or “income” is used does not make the argument in favor of federalism “empirical.” Easier said than done, but really the question is “how much?” If provinces are to gain from federalism, in terms of how much are we talking about? Has anyone made a computation or calculation? And if someone did, please show it to us.
Pernia said in an interview: “expenditure will be immense if we go to federalism, and we estimate that the fiscal deficit to the GDP (gross domestic product) ratio can easily jump to maybe 6% or more, and that’s really going to wreak havoc in terms of our fiscal situation.” Well at least the Socioeconomic Planning secretary gave us a figure. But how about Fr. Aquino? How much is his estimate? And if ever he can tell us of a number or a percentage where did he get it?
We appreciate the brilliance of Aquino as a jurist and philosopher. But he needs intellectual honesty and humility. We should listen some more to Pernia and Dominguez; let them further explain their side. I am sure that the two economic managers are not just talking about imaginative metaphysical stuff.
Sadly, we don’t need to state what is obvious: most of the ones talking about federalism are ideologues, lawyers, politicians, and media people (not to mention a bold star). These people do not run out of words. With this crucial issue though we just don’t need grand narratives but also figures.
The success or failure of federalism will depend on the translation of structural or political reforms to economic gains. If people will remain poor and hungry, and if water, education, and electricity remain unavailable and inaccessible, federalism will not mean anything.