ONE reality confronting the forces opposed to President Rodrigo Duterte is that he has remained relatively popular as a leader. This can be gleaned from the seeming failure of survey firms Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia to agree on his status based on survey results in a given period.
One thing is certain: Duterte is no Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo at this stage in his presidency. Arroyo’s approval rating sank very low, especially when she served a full term after replacing the ousted Joseph Estrada in 2001. This is probably because Duterte has developed a large fanatical following that refuses to leave his side even when confronted with the stark reality of his rule.
This is why the President can afford to dare the military, or a faction of it, to confront him and, at the same breath, say he would willingly step down if it does so. He knew the military, or a faction of it, wouldn’t go against him now considering the support he is still getting. The threat to leave is intended to prod his fanatical followers to move to his side and defend him.
The truth is no ruler with the President’s demeanor would voluntarily step down. Something close to that line was the constant refrain of former congressman Pablo Garcia’s brother Tom in our conversations when he was still with SunStar. Politicians would hold on to their posts or run in an election even if they are already too old or physically hampered, he would often say.
Besides, the President knows the many disadvantages of being out of power. He has so far been able to fend off the assaults of his relentless critics--Sen. Leila de Lima on the issue of human rights violations and Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV on his supposed hidden money--because he has power to wield. And he knows the consequences of losing that power with critics eager to put him down.
But there is one thing that could weaken his resolve or ability to hold on to power: his health. The man is in his 70s and, by his own admission, is suffering from certain illnesses, one of which forces him to often take the drug called Fentanyl. When problems of the state mount, being young and healthy are a plus for a president. I say former dictator Ferdinand Marcos would agree to that if he were alive.
In fact, there are rumors that his illnesses could be worse than what the President is willing to publicly admit. But those are rumors precisely because there could be no truth to them.For all we know, he could be as fit as a bull now. That won’t take anything away from the fact that age and health are crucial to his finishing his term in 2022.
An example of this was Marcos’s eventual fall in 1986. The dictator was old and dealing with lupus when street protests became a deluge, especially after opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. was murdered in 1983. How could a younger and healthier Marcos have dealt with the crack in his rule and the Edsa uprising? That’s an interesting question whose answer we will never know now.
What I am saying is that any ouster move should be a lesser concern than the President’s health and age going forward.