SCROLLING down: In past two Pulse Asia polls, the Cebuano senator barely made it to the Magic 12, admits it is much harder for him to win in 2019. Comelec has valid reason to drop him from the list of candidates but he might still be allowed to run... Another "big scare" is not from President Duterte and the military this time but from CPP-NPA titular head Jose Maria Sison who says the president would declare a nationwide martial law next January...
FIRST, people are talking about: The Liberal Party keeping its official candidates for the Senate at number eight although 12 are needed to fill the June 30, 2019 vacancies. And no, they have no money for its candidates... Where the money could be: PDP-Laban, with its critics that will all the incidents of alleged corruption being reported, some of the "loot" would find its way to the ruling party...
Reason, speculation
The Comelec wants former senator Sergio Osmeña III disqualified. "Serge" is Cebu's lone hope for a Cebuano to regain at least one seat in the Senate. He ran in the 2016 elections but lost. There's no other Cebuano in sight who might become a senator in the next 10 years or so, unless they would convert the senators elections into regional soon.
There's a seemingly valid reason and a suspicious ill motive as well:
* Serge failed twice to meet the requirement to declare campaign expenses, in 2010 and 2016, or more precisely, he was late in filing in 2010 and had not yet filed his statement for the 2016 race. He called the law "stupid" and "kalokohan" (nonsense), which are not tenable reasons and offensive to the Comelec as well. Notably, it's not a politician or some unknown stooge who has filed the petition; it's no less than Comelec's Campaign Fund Office that enforces its rules on filing statements of contributions and expenses (Soces).
* Serge is the brother of Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña, the mere mention of whose name makes President Duterte's blood boil and whom Duterte promised he would slap in the face on sight. Has the hate spread to anyone or anything connected with Tomas?
While anti-Duterte groups think Serge would be one of the president's lapdogs and don't like the Cebuano to be elected, the mayor's brother has been known for being a maverick. Maybe Duterte thinks he can't count on him to be as slavish as Bong Go or Bato de los Reyes.
'Harder to win'
Assuming Serge could hurdle his problem at Comelec and would be made to pay the penalties and not struck out, could he do better in 2019 than he did in 2016?
Serge was #10 in the July poll of Pulse Asia: he got 36.6 percent with Lito Lapid and JV Ejercito on his heels. The Cebuano was #8-17 in Pulse Asia's September poll: with voter preference of 29.8 percent with Manuel Roxas, Robin Padilla. Ramon Revilla Jr., Ramon Tulfo, Bato de la Rosa and JV Ejercito tied for the #11-17 spot.
The other Osmeña admitted it would be harder for him to win this time. In the past two elections, he had barely campaigned in Cebu, or hadn't been personally sighted or heard, probably thinking he could get the Cebu vote and spend his time elsewhere. Still in 2016, as expected, he topped the senators race in his home province with 620,843 as of the last unofficial tally. He could've gotten more had he campaigned for the Cebu vote. Or he could've pulled more votes elsewhere but the overall total was not enough to put him in the Magic 12: He finished #14 with 12.67 million, led by Francis Tolentino at #13, with 12.81 million.
After Red October, RP-wide ML?
Apparently, President Duterte has thrown in the towel in the fight against inflation (6.7 percent as of September), saying he had assembled brilliant minds to come with solution and failed.
"Wala tayong magawa" is now the buzz word among skeptics of the administration.
On the smuggling of multibillion-peso shabu through Customs, the president has ordered the takeover of the bureau by military and ex-military officers. They follow his orders, unlike men and women not in military uniform or had never worn one.
Critics see the beginning of military takeover but then they see a lot of things these days, such as the "invasion" of the country by Chinese nationals. Jose Ma. Sison dropped his own prediction: a national martial law in January. What would that be, a Gray January? The AFP scared the country with the Red October plot, now the CPP-NPA predicts "batas militar" from Aparre to Jolo first month next year.
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