AN ELECTION watch coalition leader expressed a grim forecast Tuesday on the political scenario in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (Armm) this May polls.

Citizens Coalition for Armm Electoral Reforms Inc. (Citizens Care) chair Salic Ibrahim said "even if the authorities will double their efforts, hindi pa rin makayang ma-control ang political dynasties (still they could not control the political dynasties)" in Armm.

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Ibrahim said he lauds the continuing collaborative effort of the Commission on Elections (Comelec), Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and Philippine National Police (PNP) in Armm, but uncertainties surrounding the validity of the automated poll results may become source of violence.

"This fear on the credibility of the results is not only present among the people, but it's also the fear of the political powers. If they do not believe in it or they want to prevent its success, they will do what they can. If they want to destroy the machines, we can expect they might just do that," Ibrahim said.

Recalling the Maguindanao massacre last November 23, 2009, Ibrahim said the incident is not isolated to Armm.

"Hindi lang ito posible mangyari sa Maguindanao kundi sa entire country. Dynasties exist in other provinces and that should not be discarded," he said.

"The fact there are political dynasties that oppose each other means (there is an expectation one or the other) could be a stronger force and they will clash," Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim said the key for a successful election is to achieve understanding.

"It has to be understood that we want it to be successful not for the interest of the few but for all. Political dynasties will be there but there has to be a limit. They have to reach a limit (which) is not to violate the rights of the people, that the people will not be victims to coercion," he added.

Citizens Care is a coalition of 36 non-governmental, civil society, people's, and sectoral organizations. Participants of the summit created an action plan that will outline the key issues and concerns with regard to the 2010 elections.

The summits were funded by the Embassy of Canada-Philippines.

Ibrahim said despite the Maguindanao incident, the Embassy of Canada has continued to express support for efforts on conducting a peaceful election.

Citizens Care is the lead implementing agency of the Sepveem Armm Phase 3 Project funded by the United States Agency for International Development through International Foundation for Electoral System. (JCZ)