INTRIGUING is how I would describe Mayor Tomas Osmeña’s recent prediction that Alvin Garcia will not carry even one precinct in the latter’s run for mayor of Cebu City. By Tomas’s admission his boast is not based on any verifiable scientific survey. It is, moreover, in direct contradiction with a survey that had Alvin as frontrunner in the race for mayor. Yet Mayor Osmeña made the prediction with a con-fidence that borders, as is usual with him, on arrogance.

Just how can Mr. Osmeña predict with extreme confidence that Alvin will not win in even one precinct against Mike Rama?

True, Mr. Garcia has lost twice before to Mr. Osmeña.

But Alvin is fighting Mike, not Tomas, this time. Is Tomas trying to tell us that Mike so beats him in popularity that he, Rama, would wipe out Alvin in every precinct, something Tomas could not do in his previous two contests with Alvin?

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I can only speculate that Mayor Osmeña must know something he will do on election day to guarantee his prediction and negate the law of probability that tells us otherwise. Alvin did not lose in all precincts to Tomas, so how can he lose now in each and every precinct to Rama, whose candidacy a good number of barangay captains expressly objected to in writing?

One must remember that Tomas nearly lost to Alvin in their first contest. What has Alvin done since then to make him lose his following in every single precinct in the city? Nothing, except to fail to match the machinery and resources that power up BOPK. Mike on the other hand has proven convincingly enough to the citizens of this city that he will do Osmena’s bidding as mayor.

This explains Osmeña’s preference for Rama over his own sister Georgia, who will surely be her own woman and nobody’s footstool. Rama is Osmena’s plan B. Should Tomas lose in the south he would still be the de facto mayor if Mike Rama wins.

Tomas, therefore, needs Rama to win. This underpins his preposterous forecast. Thus he alone knows what he will do to make his forecast come true.

There are two things a candidate can do to ensure that his opponent loses in each and every precinct. One is massive technical and literal vote-buying and the other, which is even more effective, is rigging the computers. Tomas definitely has the resources to do the first. I doubt, however, if he can do the second, even if it requires less resources. Or are we being naïve here to assume that the Comelec that controls the computers, is beyond corrupting?

In any case, Tomas owes it to the public to reveal the scientific basis for his fearless forecast because from where we stand, this is possible only if he did one or the other of the two ways to zap Alvin in all the precincts.