Mayoralty candidates differ views in recent Kinaadman survey

CAGAYAN DE ORO. Cagayan de Oro's mayoralty candidates shake hands during the forum-debate organized by Lihuk 2019 at Xavier University's Little Theater on Tuesday, April 30, 2019. From left: Ben Contreras, Felix Borres, Jose Gabriel La Viña, and incumbent mayor Oscar Moreno. (PJ Orias)
CAGAYAN DE ORO. Cagayan de Oro's mayoralty candidates shake hands during the forum-debate organized by Lihuk 2019 at Xavier University's Little Theater on Tuesday, April 30, 2019. From left: Ben Contreras, Felix Borres, Jose Gabriel La Viña, and incumbent mayor Oscar Moreno. (PJ Orias)

OPPOSITION mayoral candidate Jose Gabriel “Pompee” La Viña over the weekend said that the poll survey conducted by Xavier University’s Kinaadman: University Research Office (Kuro) was “meaningless,” as he questioned the delay of the release of the results.

Meanwhile, his rival and incumbent Cagayan de Oro City Mayor Oscar Moreno had a different take on the matter.

La Viña said the results of the survey which was conducted last April 4 to 11, barely a week after the local campaign kicked off, should have been released two days after the conduct of the survey. But, the university only announced the result on Friday, April 26.

“The survey is ancient history. Was there a malicious intent on the part of Xavier, why would you release survey that is three weeks late? It was made in the middle of the first week of the campaign and now is April 28, that’s a meaningless survey,” La Viña said.

“If you are familiar of surveys, two days after ma-procure naman ang data but if ipagawas nimo two weeks later you are trying to give the impression nga layo ra kaayo ko where in fact it’s a different situation now (just two days after the data were procured, it can be released, but if you release it two weeks later, you are trying to give the impression that I am lagging far behind, where in fact, it’s a different situation now),”he added.

The survey results showed that re-electionist Moreno landed the first place with 61.5 percent voter preference. La Viña was tailing Moreno with 16 percent. Independent candidates Felix Borres stood at 0.6 percent followed by Ben Contreras Tiu at 0.3 percent.

The survey was conducted among 800 registered voters in the city coming from the two districts, using a statistical sampling technique. The margin of error for the mayoral and vice-mayoral survey is plus minus 3.4 percent with 95 percent confidence level.

Moreno is the favored candidate in both districts with 65.3 percent of voter preference in district 1 and 58.1 percent in the second district. La Viña ranked second with 13.2 percent in district 1 and 18.5 percent in district 2. Borres and Tiu got less than one percent support in both districts. The undecided voters were at 20.4 percent in district 1 and 22.3 percent in district 2.

Meanwhile, Moreno said in a statement that he is “encouraged” in the survey result.

“Our unprecedented performance since we assumed office in 2013, coupled by the spirit of teamwork and harmony that our entire city slate has so consistently demonstrated, are bearing fruits. The said survey results have shown that. In addition, the results have also suggested that we can still attain our group objective of a sweep,” the statement said.

“It is already within reach. With this, we are - as one cohesive team - all the more encouraged. We earnestly hope that our message of teamwork and harmony will be embraced by the vast majority of our people in the remaining weeks,” the statement added.

Moreno’s running mate, Raineir Joaquin Uy also topped the vice-mayoral race with 55 percent, followed by former mayor Vicente Emano with 23.6 percent. Undecided voters accounted for 21.3 percent while 0.1 percent had no response.

According to districts, Uy has the support of 60.3 percent of registered voters in district 1 and 50.2 percent in district 2, while Emano had the nod of 18.5 percent of district 1 voters and 28.2 percent in district 2. The numbers of undecided voters were at 21.2 percent and 21.3 percent in the two districts, respectively.

However, La Viña said, despite the delay of the release of the results, the survey showed that he is strong as he already gained 16 percent of the voters’ preference during the first week of the campaign.

The standard bearer of the opposition coalition also said he maintained the momentum as evident in attendance of people during their rallies and other independent and internal surveys.

“It actually shows that we are strong kay pagsugod pa lang nga wala pa kaayo ko maila naa nako 16 percent right now medyo equal rami ni Moreno based sa mga internal surveys,” La Viña said.

(...because in the beginning that I am not known, it already has 16 percent right now, and somehow we are equal with Moreno based on the internal surveys)

La Viña also questioned the credibility of the people who did the survey.

“Nahibaw-an namo surveys should be neutral pero naay uban diha connected kang Moreno,” he added.

(You know these surveys should be neutral but there are some inside there who are connected with Moreno)

But, Dr. Astrid Sinco, Kuro’s deputy director and poll survey project leader, maintained that XU is non-partisan and that the enumerators who conducted the survey were trained to be objective and are not affiliated with any political candidate.

Sinco said around 15 enumerators, who were all professionals, were trained to ask questions objectively. There were also data supervisors and data editors.

“Gi-train gyud namo na sila unsaon pagpangutana nga objective. Gi-train sila sa ilang pagsinina, kanang wala gyud bahid nga kolor sa poliitka,” Sinco said.

(They were trained by us how to askobjectively. They were trained on how to dress, that there should be no political colors in it)

The university spent almost P1 million for the survey and it was not commissioned by any candidate or political group.

XU is set to release the result of the second survey few days before the election day.

“Sa second poll survey we will add another safety net nga academic in nature nga ang among mga respondents naka geo-tagged sila (In the second poll survey, we will add another safety net that is academic in nature, which respondents will be geo-tagged),” Sinco said.

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