WILL it be Greg-Bing-Elcid? Or Greg-Bing-Thaddy? Or Greg-Jocelle-Thaddy? Or whatever.
If Bacolod election turns out to be Greg Gasataya-Bing Leonardia-El Cid Familiarian then it would be the triumph of the Grupo Progreso's mythical slogan 15-0. The natural advantage of the incumbents would be proven to be working. At its best, it would be the re-affirmation of Bacolodnons' trust for the leadership of the incumbent team.
If it turns out to be Greg-Bing-Thaddy, or Greg-Jocelle-Thaddy or whatever mix without Bing and El Cid then it would be the magical victory of the unseen hands of the combined powers of political titans in the city and province.
The latter outcomes could hardly be the triumph of the rights-conscious people. They are not capable of it. Or at least not yet, not in this or next elections.
The latter could only be the work of the imagination of the Machiavellian minds, not the narrow minded politicians, who could translate such conceptual mix into effective operational strategy.
To the colorful minds of the Machiavellian political operators, the congruence or not of the means and ends are the least of their consideration, if at all they have any, in meeting their buccaneer interests and those of their politician sponsors.
In short, they could only be the products of these political operators commissioned by families and groups who have vested agenda in Bacolod.
The port business in Bacolod is bustling, and reported big expansion around it is open for a take. Commercial enclaves are mushrooming in the east and south sides of the city, creating more business opportunities. Call centers and other business processing centers are recovering from losses due to growth in other cities. Land use conversions in the east of the city is spurring growth in industrial & commercial businesses, entertainment and gambling hubs.
Bacolod is also increasingly becoming more competitive with the regional centers, Iloilo and Cebu. Thanks to the efforts of the past and present city government leadership or so some quarters assert.
Thus more financial institutions, real estate developers, other interest groups from international companies and neighboring provinces are eyeing investment expansion in the city.
Indeed Bacolod is now a coveted city for politicians and business groups.
Some of these big interest groups are reported to have different local political links, not with the incumbents. So the only way for them to get through their goals is to dislodge the present leadership and replace it with their own.
But getting rid the incumbent leadership and placing their own is not easy. The incumbents being entrenched and themselves being expert in business deals, they have to apply the same principles and rules in reconfiguring the present political structure of the city to effectively suit to their interests.
Like the long list of colonizers of our country who used natives to fight natives, these vested groups have to use local seasoned political operators to concoct the best political mix to divide and control the main political players and their mass followers.
They know that the Greg-Bing-El Cid's 15-0 platform is not built on "the wall of China" strength. It is formidable but not invulnerable to sabotage from within and outside. They know that the triumvirate rely on their incumbency advantage, their blessing from the ruling administration, their team of seasoned backdoor operators, and their reported mass of casuals and job orders. By plain imagination one can easily be mesmerized by their huge army. But these advantages are also their weaknesses.
The challengers thus employ political mix variants as the best strategy in a one on one fight in three arenas. The incumbent congressman is obviously harder to defeat, give it to the painstaking efforts of the guy. So they might either focus on getting the vice mayoralty as a way to get the mayoralty, eventually, or dislodge the mayoralty and vice mayoralty respectively at once. Thus, the different political combinations to work on.
The challengers are likewise aware that the GP has a formidable slate of councilors. So the challengers might work smarter on winning their stronger two or three councilors, and deal with four or five stronger bets of GP whom they have already established political ties in the past yet still open to working with them if circumstances allow it.
In all, the GP is playing the conventional, positional political warfare, where targets are fixed, supporters are mere statistics and results predictable. Those who have supported the 15-0 will get the corresponding "utang na loob," while those have not or fell short of their commitment will likely be shredded off from the list.
The challengers on the other hand, having the support of interest groups, or so says the rumors grinding around, are playing the guerilla war, sometimes quiet and other times noisy to deceive, and fight in areas where they are sure only of winning, and make the best of the outcomes later on.
15-0 or otherwise, the forthcoming elections in Bacolod will still be the game of the unseen hands of big interest groups who are bent to rake all the fruits of their intervention, the seasoned political operators who make all the magical combinations to make enough money till the next elections, and the politicians who are willing to give everything just to get or keep the power.
The process and outcome of elections will only change when the people become part of the political equation, either by forced circumstances or by their own collective struggles.