Batuhan: Who’s next?

A LOT has happened in the world since we last wrote our piece during the month of May.

At the time, I was remarking about how merry the month always seems to be, not realizing that a couple of weeks after, I would have to rethink my description.

Considering that I think of the United Kingdom as second home, having spent a good deal of my professional and family life there, events in and around that country are always a source of great interest to me.

These days, of course, unless one lives under a rock, it would be difficult for anyone not to notice how turbulent times are for the British. Whether or not one has an opinion on Brexit–and many people have–whether they live in the UK or not, no one can deny that it is probably one of the most controversial and critical socio-political events of recent times.

The European Union was born from perhaps the greatest political experiment of our time. Europe had always been a fractious and divided place. Over hundreds of years, its constituent countries and territories have waged war on each other, including two of the bloodiest conflicts humankind has ever suffered in World Wars I and II. The latest bloodshed so shocked the Europeans into doing something about their conflict-ridden relationships, that out of the ashes of the last great war, the European Economic Community (which became the European Community and finally the European Union) came to be born.

Imagine a group of governments coming together, where the heads of the United Kingdom, Germany and France all sit together around one table, talking peacefully about issues that concerned the continent’s welfare? Never before has such an arrangement existed successfully, which makes the establishment of the European Union a remarkable feat of modern geopolitical diplomacy.

Today of course, this marriage of convenience but also great strategic necessity is in danger of disintegrating and falling apart.

The United Kingdom, considered a key component of European unity, has decided that its identity and sovereignty as a nation are being threatened by closer ties to the continent. Initially, it was concern for British jobs being taken over by non-UK Europeans. This then escalated into the UK’s national affairs being unduly influenced by non-British politicians in Brussels.

The perceived loss of economic and political influence and their surrender to European bodies and authorities apparently became too much for most of the British people to swallow, so much so that they eventually decided that enough was enough. That they would strike out on their own and decouple themselves from the union that has kept the continent from breaking out into conflict over any number of issues.

Today the UK, tomorrow Germany? The problem is obvious. When the UK finally leaves the Union (and the probability of this not happening is almost zero), the other members of the EU that have stayed the course, despite problems and challenges, will now be thinking twice about remaining. The Germans have had problems being in the organization. So has France. And Austria. And a good number of other countries besides. But nobody has been audacious enough to bolt out, knowing fully well that problems within a functioning European Union are still by far better than blessings outside of it.

The UK has now lost its leader due to this popular decision. She was not able to put together a plan to extricate the country out of the Union. So her hand was forced and she had to cash her chips and hand the reins of power over to someone who may have a better chance of completing the process.

But the problem of Brexit does not end with whether or not someone can finally pull the feat off. The problem is that within the word is exit. The peace and stability of Europe, and indeed the world, has relied on European nations entering into a difficult union, but staying the course and solving problems together, in good times and in bad.

Now that the UK has led the way, who knows who will follow next?