I HAVE my speculative answer ... and our readers have also their conjectural analysis. The tension in the Middle East can go up or it can gradually subside. The situation would always depend on the status of collision between Iran and America.
In an unexpected point in time, Qassem Soleimani (respected military leader of Iran) was killed (ambushed, murdered, assassinated, bumped off, eliminated, mangled...any term will do) by the United States of America. The reason for erasing him was anchored on the “witch hunting theory”. His brain is capable of starting World War III.
The death of Soleimani was in a way barbarous. It was masterminded by the most civilized country in the world that abhors terrorism. The hate missile attack on US bases in Iraq was just a retaliation from Iran. In the “Art of War”, it is said that if your opponent strikes you, you have to clobber back ... or else he will think that you are afraid.
Just like in the war movie, this Middle East psycho drama will have more plots before reaching the climax. We hope that other countries will not join the side of the protagonist or the antagonist. We do not want to see a tragic end for this chronicle. Iran is the center of Shiite Islam. In the olden times, Iran was Persia. The population is above 65 million, mostly Aryans with Kurds and nomadic tribes belonging to the minority. The main language is Farsi and the state religion is Shiite Islam. It was in Persia where Cyrus the Great built his empire.
Iran’s history was both cultural and bloody. I personally love Persian literature ... “A Thousand and One Nights”, “Shanama” (Book of Kings), “Sohrab and Rustom” (epic), “Rubaiyat” (Quatrains) of Omar Khayyam, and “Gulistan” (Rose Garden) by novelist Saadi.
Modern Iran is characterized by oil power, traumatic changes of leadership, and the quest to restore Iran’s power and reputation in the world. In World War I, both Allies and Axis Powers ignored the neutrality of Iran. During World War II, Colonel Reza’s friendship with Nazi Germany caused his downfall. As the last Shah of Iran, he modernized his country. In 1967, he was crowned “Shahinsha” (king of kings).
The Shah befriended America and sported a lavish lifestyle. That gradually caused his downfall. On Feb. 1, 1980, Ayatollah Khomeini returned home and he was kicked out from his peacock throne. Khomeini established the Islamic Republic of Iran under the new Islamic law known as ‘sharia’. The new Islamic Iran turned against the Western powers that supported the previous Shah. America called Iran ‘The Great Satan’. Iran became the spark plug for the majority of conflicts in the Middle East.
Khomeini died on July 4, 1989. He was succeeded by other priest rulers in the Guardian Council. Iran is perceived to have a nuclear program that started in 1950s. This is vehemently protested by U.S. and Israel. Iran’s programs in science and technology include satellites and space rockets. Will Iran go to war with America? Is US Pres. Trump going to use this issue for his re-election? Let us all watch.