LOOKS like our country is navigating towards a dangerous crossroad.
ABS CBN franchise permit is up for renewal next month but it is also facing closure from no less the President himself who repeatedly stressed that he was pissed off by the tv station’s rejection of his tv ads during 2016 elections despite his capacity to pay.
Duterte’s allies in Congress, who constitute the overwhelming majority, are backing the President stand. Yesterday, Solicitor General Calida, a Duterte diehard ally, has also filed a quo warranto petition to the Supreme Court to declare null the ABS franchise on the basis of what he said as alleged tv abuses.
It is likely that the opposition and media groups would muster a broad protest movement to resist this continuing assault on freedom of the press and alleged institutions critical of the Duterte administration policies and programs.
This issue could spark a new wave of national protest against the administration already embattled by crisis after crisis.
The novel corona virus or ncov2019 is also shaking the economy and the longer it persists without substantive actions from the government that prevent its further spread or minimize casualties could pull down the country’s economic targets and worse spell local crisis especially those whose revenues are propelled much by tourism.
The ncov2019 is also instigating dozens of countries to strengthen their protectionist policies which could trigger international trade crisis and global recession. As a country being import-dependent, export-oriented, debt-driven, it is not impossible to be left unscathed by the global trade crisis.
The Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) is another factor that could stir rapidly towards a crossroad. Duterte has already called for the termination of VFA even without Senate concurrence. This has apparently caused some cracks in the administration’s key men.
Whether they unify or not, the issue could very well be determined by the response of the US towards Duterte’s demands, and the maneuvers of Amboys in the Duterte cabinet led by Defense chief Lorenzana.
Nonetheless, the nationalist and patriotic movements will seize this issue to expose the continued dominance of US in the country’s affairs, and further expand the base of their united front.
Peace talks, recently renewed for the nth times by Duterte, remains shaky as the perceived military hawks in the Cabinet continue their vicious attacks against the reds and its allies in all fronts, and the tactical armed skirmishes rage throughout the archipelago.
At any rate, with peace talks or none, violent war will continue to rage in the country’s rural areas, while bloody killings and rights abuses will continue unabated in urban areas, as both state the security forces and the armed insurgents vow to defeat each other.
Despite the DILG and other state efforts to strengthen the local government units towards good local governance, most LGUs continue their “usual practices” of patronage politics, protection for landed oligarchs, deplorable corrupt activities, reported coddling and protecting of drugs and organized crime syndicates, and what have they.
In fact this could be the downside in the implementation of EO 70 and the Retooled Community Support Program (RCSP) because the funds from these programs could only be used as another sources of corruption by LGUs, aside from the fact that not a few local chief executives and officials are reportedly collaborating with the armed insurgents for various reasons.
Again, it looks like our country is presently navigating towards a dangerous crossroad where the factors and forces could possibly take place and clash.
Such scenario will either expose the gross lack of capacity of the state to manage the general and specific situation or open up positive factors for the opposition to advance their agenda in their own terms and means possible.
The opposition could muster enough forces from within and outside the state utilizing all burning issues of the day to form a broad national movement for the ouster of Duterte leading to a regime change before 2022 national elections.
Or the ruling state is able to consolidate enough to quell all the attempts of the broad opposition by all means possible.
Still, the issues I mentioned will force the changing of the balance of forces, and scenarios point to one that will likely be different from the time Duterte came to power through half way of his term.
The Duterte administration could either prevent the crossroad, or its insensitivity and inability to manage and resolve the issues fairly would be the cause of its own dangerous crossroad.