SEVERAL elements can be found in the silent propagation of Covid-19, which had hit several countries already. One important element is the incubation period. A mistake in managing the assumption associated with the incubation period can release patients from quarantine and spread the virus in their homes and their communities.
The Annals of Internal Medicine published a report on March 10 revealing some useful information that appear crucial in controlling the spread of Covid-19 in the Philippines. Authors Stephen Lauer, Kyra Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah Meredith, Andrew Azman, Nicholas Reich, and Justine Lessler noted that, based on confirmed 181 cases studied (so far at the time of this study), 97.5 percent of those confirmed positive with Covid-19 become symptomatic within 11.5 days. That, we all know. That justifies the quarantine period of 14 days. This article mentioned that already in an article last month.
But here are things we do not know, which I just found out.
First, the 11.5 days reported was an average figure. The longest recorded incubation period in these confirmed cases is 15.6 days. That means that, if associated Department of Health quarantine facilities release suspected patients after 14 days, these patients could still manifest symptoms 1.6 days later. Therefore, within that 1.6 days and thereafter, these patients are highly contagious.
Second, under conservative assumptions, the authors expect that “101 out of every 10,000 positive cases will develop symptoms after 14 days of quarantine.” Take note the strength of expectation. The researchers did not believe that symptoms “may” develop. Instead, they believed that symptoms “will” develop. This adds to the seriousness of scientific lapse if our health authorities released people under quarantine after 14 days.
This explains the doubling of confirmed positive cases in the Philippines, as announced recently. Some Filipinos and non-Filipino visitors infected with Covid-19, and without symptoms, continue to roam around the country infecting others they meet.
Thus, if health authorities are reading this article, it is recommended that the quarantine confine must be increased to more than 16 days, preferably 20 days. To ensure control within the quarantine facilities itself, those who are within the 16-day incubation period must be separated from those already beyond the 16-day incubation period.
For the rest of the Filipinos, review my articles on Covid-19 last month for greater understanding of the risks. Then avoid crowded places, as we have no certainty how far the non-symptomatic but highly contagious carriers of Covid-19 are reaching our communities.