Study says Covid-19 cases may spike

DAVAO. A study by a UP-Mindanao bioinformatics expert showed that carriers of Covid-19 in Davao Region could reach 3,000. However, this can be prevented if the government can step up its testing methods; hence, UP-Mindanao is suggesting a solution. (Contributed by UP Mindanao)
DAVAO. A study by a UP-Mindanao bioinformatics expert showed that carriers of Covid-19 in Davao Region could reach 3,000. However, this can be prevented if the government can step up its testing methods; hence, UP-Mindanao is suggesting a solution. (Contributed by UP Mindanao)

A STUDY by the University of the Philippines-Mindanao (UP-Mindanao) showed that Covid-19 carriers in Davao Region may hit a maximum of 3,000 individuals with the slow pace of testing.

“With the current landscape of Covid-19 in the region, testing asymptomatic individuals or Covid-19 carriers is necessary since they may show no symptoms but can freely transmit the disease if not regulated,” said UP-Mindanao bioinformatics expert Dr. May Anne Mata, author of the study, in a statement released by the university.

According to her mathematical model’s projections, “Covid-19 carriers in Davao Region will likely reach a maximum of 3,000 individuals with a testing rate of 0.1 percent per day — that is, for every 1,000 Covid-19 asymptomatic individuals, only one is tested.”

“But if the testing rate is increased to 70 percent to 100 percent per day, the number of Covid-19 carriers will reach 0 within a faster period compared to the status quo testing capacity,” UP-Mindanao said in its statement.

The study has yet to be published but Mata and the university will release an early draft that will be presented to local authorities in the region.

The World Health Organization has earlier stated that efforts on social distancing, washing of hands, and coughing etiquette are not enough to prevent the spread of the disease. It has stated that it is also important for the government to conduct mass testing and isolation.

“We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test. Test every suspected case. If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to two days before they developed symptoms, and test those people too,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement.

Earlier, the Department of Health (DOH) said it is not keen on conducting mass testing.

In a SunStar Philippines report, DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said they do not believe that testing each and every Filipino would be an efficient move to stem the spread of Covid-19, but ensured that the government is ready to undertake such measure.

“For now, we don’t see the need to do mass testing. It is in our plans, and if we have enough resources and the government can do it, and it is already imperative for the government to do it, we will do it,” Vergeire said.

UP-Mindanao’s diagnostic program

The University of Mindanao has proposed a diagnostic program that can give free testing for the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in Davao Region.

The program includes establishing a P15-million biosafety molecular lab, which will have to be attached to a hospital and is expected to supplement the ongoing tests in the Southern Philippines Medical Center (SPMC). SPMC is currently the only medical facility in Mindanao recognized as a subnational reference laboratory that can test for Covid-19.

“To back up the existing facility in SPMC and to prepare for the unprecedented peak of outbreak of the disease, it is only imperative to consider the establishment of another diagnostic facility for faster and efficient diagnosis for coronavirus,” Philippine Genome Center (PGC) Mindanao director Dr. Lyre Anni Murao, a professor of virology at UP Mindanao and author of the proposal, said.

The proposed lab will be made from two container vans – the easiest way to set up the facility – and equipped with a real-time polymerase chain reaction or PCR detection system and other equipment. The facility will also be designed to handle infectious materials based on guidelines from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Department of Health (DOH).

“The role of PGC Mindanao is capability building. We will organize trainings for our partner hospital on biosafety procedures and molecular diagnostics. During the duration of the Covid-19 pandemic, our staff can also assist in the testing if there is a need for extra personnel. But eventually, our partner hospital will have to run the lab itself. That’s why it is important for this lab to be attached to a hospital so its operations will be sustainable in the long run,” Murao said.

When operating in full capacity at 96 tests per day, monthly operational costs for the lab (procuring kits, reagents, and consumables, as well as costs for other requirements) are pegged at P10.3 million.

“This lab can also serve as a model that can be replicated in other sites of the country for accurate and timely detection of the disease. The lab also has future use for other infectious and emerging diseases, making the country even more prepared for crisis such as this,” Murao added. (With UP-Mindanao PR)

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