ITALY is reassessing its lockdown.
We should do the same before we extend the present one.
In my calculation, which appears below as an optional reading, Philippine deaths will not exceed 8,000 if we take hygienic measures like wearing masks, washing hands, social distancing, etc. WITHOUT LOCKING DOWN.
If we do not lock down, Covid-19 will bring Philippine deaths this year from statistical expectation of 600,000 to 608,000, a one percent increase attributable to Covid-19.
It is clear from the above figures that the benefits from a lockdown are MINUSCULE compared to its costs in standstill and eventual collapse of the economy, and in the suffering, hunger, chaos and socia unrest that are already evident this early in the lockdowns.
The worst case scenario happened aboard the Diamond Princess where 3,711 people, crammed together for weeks in an exclosed space, breathed the same virus-laden air recirculated by central air conditioning 24 hours a day. Casualty was eight persons, one out of every 500.
The best case scenario is China’s, in which 1 in 42,200 people died.
Some people charge China with under-reporting. So let us stretch China’s deaths to 10 times the reported figures. That would be 33,000 deaths out of China’s 1.4 billion people. That is one death for every 42,000.
Mid-point between Diamond Princess’ one in every 500 and China’s one in 42,000 is 21,250. That is one death for every 21,250.
If one of every 21,250 Filipinos were to die of Covid-19, that would mean 4,000 Filipinos would die from Covid-19. Double that to 8,000 Filipinos. (By Atty. Manuel “Maning” Go)