MALACAÑANG on Thursday, May 21, contradicted Health Secretary Francisco Duque III and said the Philippines is still experiencing the first wave of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak.
Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque, a lawyer, also said the epidemic curve has not been flattened, although it is starting to flatten.
Like Duque, Roque said the first wave started when a Chinese tourist from Wuhan, China was admitted at the San Lazaro Hospital and found positive for the novel coronavirus, or Sars-CoV-2.
She was Patient No. 1, Duque announced on January 30.
Her male companion, who was reported as merely under isolation, died on February 1 and became the first Covid-19 mortality outside China. Only then was he announced as Patient No. 2.
Another Chinese woman was announced as Patient No. 3 on February 5. The woman, however, had returned to China via Mactan Cebu International Airport.
Duque on Wednesday told the Senate committee of the whole that those three Chinese patients comprised the first wave of infections in the country, based on the analysis of epidemiologist John Wong.
Duque said the second wave started when new cases were announced in March, starting with a Filipino male who had traveled from Japan and another Filipino who frequented a Muslim prayer hall in San Juan.
Patient No. 4 and Patient No. 5 were confirmed on March 6. The wife of Patient No. 5 was announced as Patient No. 6 on March 7.
Patients No. 5 and 6 were the first cases of local transmission, Duque confirmed, prompting President Rodrigo Duterte to declare a state of public health emergency. The couple had died from Covid-19.
Roque said, however, that the cases that started to increase in March are still part of the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in the country.
“Nagpapatuloy po ang first wave. Sa katunayan, nagpatuloy ito sa buwan ng Pebrero na meron tayong konting mga kaso na nai-report at lumobo sa buwan ng March,” Roque said.
“Patuloy pong lumobo ‘yan hanggang sa buwan ng Mayo kung saan nakikita natin ngayon sa graph na ito na bumababa na. Kaya nga po sinasabi natin, bagama’t hindi pa po fully flattened ang curve, nagsisimula na po ang pag-flatten ng curve,” he added.
(This is still the first wave of the outbreak. A few cases were reported in February and more were reported in March. The number of cases continued to increase until May although this graph shows that the numbers are declining. Although the curve has not been flattened, it is starting to flatten.)
To explain Duque’s statement of a second wave, Roque likened doctors to lawyers.
As lawyers interpret the law in several ways, Roque said doctors also probably interpret a single data set in various ways.
“Eh, alam nyo po, ang medisina, para ring mga abogado ‘yan. Iisa lang ang batas namin, iba-iba ang interpretasyon. Ganyan din po siguro sa medisina - iisa ang syensya, iisa ang datos, iba ang basa,” he said.
“Sa tingin ko, kung titingnan natin ang depinisyon ng kurbada, ng wave na tinatawag, it is the number of cases over a period of time of community-acquired cases. Eh, dapat po siguro, simula lamang yung tatlong kaso ng mga Tsino,” Roque added.
(The so-called wave is defined as the number of community-acquired cases over a period of time. The first three cases involving the Chinese nationals marked the start of the first wave.)
Roque argued that the three cases involving the Chinese tourists - Patients 1, 2 and 3 - were not community-acquired.
Wong, an epidemiologist, explained during the Department of Health (DOH) virtual press briefing Wednesday that a wave of an outbreak is characterized by a rise in the number of cases followed by a decline.
Wong is a member of the sub-technical working group on data analytics of the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases.
He said the Philippines had a “very small wave” when the DOH confirmed Patients 1, 2 and 3.
The second wave began with the announcement of new cases in March and peaked at 538 cases, the single biggest number of cases within a 24-hour period, on March 31.
“We’re now in a trough, or the lower part of the second wave,” Wong had said.
He also said the epidemic curve has flattened. From a peak of 538 cases in one day, the DOH has been reporting an average of 220 cases per day since March 11.
The epidemic curve shows the frequency of new cases over a period of time and is usually characterized by a steep upslope.
Flattening the curve, a term coined by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, refers to the social distancing and other interventions to slow the spread of a disease and avoid a steep upslope leading to the peak.
Wong said flattening the curve also means keeping the number of cases below the country’s health system capacity, which is measured in terms of hospital beds, isolation beds, ICU beds and mechanical ventilators.
From May 11 to May 20, the DOH reported new cases of infection at a range of 205 to 292. On May 20, new cases reached 279. (MVI/SunStar Philippines)