Health expert warns 33,000 infections under GCQ

Screenshot from PIA virtual presser

AN EXPERT urged the public to remain strict in the practice of health safety measures despite being under general community quarantine (GCQ) to prevent the possible spike of novel coronavirus infection.

Regional Health Research and Development Consortium in Davao Region (RHRDC-Davao) technical review board member Dr. Felix Chavez Jr. said based on their forecast, about 33,129 individuals are predicted to be prone to infection in about 187 days under GCQ.

He said their forecasting also revealed that with GCQ in place, the plateau phase of the virus will be on July 18, 2020 while the projected end of the epidemic is on September 18, 2020.

He said during the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) period, the doubling time interval of the Covid-19 cases slowed down to at least 11 days compared to three days in March when the region was not yet put under community quarantine.

"It is another good indicator that we are slowing down the transmission in the ECQ model. The ECQ is well-implemented and it delayed the doubling time of the virus," he said.

He said Davao Region still managed to contain the virus but based on their data, infection is still possible.

But he suggested that people should continue to observe best practices implemented during the ECQ period so as not to spike the number of cases and overwhelm the healthcare facilities in the region.

"In the GCQ model, there is an increase in the contact kasi pwede nang lumabas (because many people can now go out). That would mean, there are a lot of individuals who can have possible communication and possible transmission," he said.

"It doesn't mean that since we shifted already to GCQ, magrelax na tayo (we will relax). We have to consider the best practices we do during the ECQ because it will help us in controlling the spread of the virus or the disease," Chavez said.

These practices are the continued strict social distancing measures, wearing face masks, and spreading awareness about the disease.


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