WORKING-HOUR losses have worsened during the first half of 2020, reflecting the deteriorating situation in recent weeks, especially in developing countries as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to devastate the world, according to an updated report from the International Labor Organization (ILO).
During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours—equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs—were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019.
In the Asia-Pacific region in particular, working-hour losses were placed at 7.1 percent, equivalent to 125 million full-time jobs, said the latest “ILO Monitor: Covid-19 and the World of Work (Fifth Edition),” which was updated on June 30 to reflect real-time data.
Working-hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14.0 percent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs).
Losses in AP
Losses in the Asia-Pacific in particular are estimated at 13.5 percent, or 235 million full-time jobs. Among its sub-regions, the greatest reduction in working hours is estimated to have occurred in Southern Asian with a decline of 17.9 percent in the second quarter, followed by Southeast Asia with 12.6 percent.
This is the worst global crisis since the second World War, with a lot of uncertainty over when recovery will kick in and with devastating impact on the labor market, said Christian Viegelahn, economist at the ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, speaking at a recent webinar organized jointly by the ILO and the Employers Confederation of the Philippines.
He explained that the ILO is looking at hours worked and not unemployment because “in the current context, we believe that working hours is the more suitable indicator to measure the full scale of the effect.”
He said many workers might not be unemployed according to the strict sense of the definition, but that many workers “actually work less than they used to and probably [less] than they would like to with associated losses in income.”
2nd half forecast
The factors driving the decline in working hours vary considerably across countries, he said. In some countries, shorter working hours and “being employed but not working” contributed significantly to the decline. In others, the main driving factor was people being pushed into unemployment and inactivity.
The ILO forecasted that the labor market recovery during the second half of 2020 will be “uncertain and incomplete.” It projects working-hour losses of around 4.9 percent that is equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs-in the fourth quarter of the year under a baseline scenario.
But in case of a second wave of the pandemic in the second half, working-hour losses could go as high as 11.9 percent, or 340 million full-time jobs, in the last quarter.
“Even in the optimistic scenario, which assumes a fast recovery, global working hours are unlikely to return to the pre-crisis level by the end of 2020,” the report said.
“The actual labor market outcome in the remainder of 2020 will be shaped by policy choices and actions as well as by the pandemic’s future trajectory.”(PHILEXPORT NEWS AND FEATURES)