THE total coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in Davao Region had remained below the projections of the University of the Philippines-Mindanao's (UP-Mindanao) Interdisciplinary Applied Modeling laboratory (IAM lab).
In August, the IAM lab projected that the total Covid-19 cases in Davao City may hit 2,500. However, as of September 30, 2020, data from the Department of Health in Davao Region (DOH-Davao) showed that total Covid-19 cases in the city were at 1,953.
IAM lab utilizes an epidemic model called Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model for its projections.
Dr. May Anne E. Mata, associate professor of Applied Mathematics, head of IAM lab, DMPCS, UP Mindanao, said their projections were based on the Covid-19 numbers released by DOH-Davao then. The relaxed community quarantine restrictions and movement of people are among the factors that will lead to an upward trend of the city's Covid-19 cases.
It can also be noted that there is a slower increase in Covid-19 cases in Davao City in September compared to August and July. In September, Covid-19 cases grew by 42 percent to 1,953 from 1,373 in August. Cases in August grew by 57 percent to 1,373 cases from 873 cases in July. Cases in July grew by 110 percent to 873 cases from 416 cases in June.
However, despite the slower increase in terms of total cases, the DOH-Davao recorded 580 new Covid-19 cases in Davao City in September. This is the most number of new Covid-19 cases recorded in a single month since March.
New recoveries for September was at 493, bringing total recoveries by the end of the month to 1,552. Total recoveries account for 79 percent of the total Covid-19 cases in Davao City.
September also recorded the most number of new deaths related to the Covid-19 with 23. Total deaths linked to the disease are now at 78.
Meanwhile, active cases in September breached the 300-mark after six months since the pandemic struck Davao Region.
From September 22 to 30, Davao City recorded higher daily numbers of new Covid-19 cases.
On September 29, it logged 55 new Covid-19 cases, the highest since August 27. Active cases on this day reached 310, breaching the 300 mark.
As of September 30, active cases in the city is at 323.
"The recent increase in Covid-19 cases in Davao City is proof that the virus is still very much present in our communities. As a result, our healthcare facilities are nearing maximum capacity," Acting Davao City mayor Sebastian Z. Duterte said in a statement on Wednesday, September 30.
Duterte is also reminding the public to "strictly follow the health protocols to prevent further transmission of the virus."
"I appeal to all of you to stay home and go out only for work, emergency, and/or other essential activities. Furthermore, I am advising everyone to take extra precaution when visiting malls, grocery stores, and public markets," he said.
Gatherings are also being strongly discouraged. With the upcoming All Souls' Day, families are urged to visit the cemeteries before October 29 and after November 4.
"The local government will continue to enforce the minimum health standards and we are imploring everybody to work together in ensuring the safety of every Dabawenyo," Duterte said.
As of September 30, 2020, Davao City has 1,958 Covid-19 cases with 1,552 recoveries, 78 deaths, and 323 active cases.
Record-breaking September
Meanwhile, DOH-Davao recorded more new Covid-19 cases and new deaths linked to the disease in September.
New Covid-19 cases in September was at 940, the most number of new cases recorded in a month since the start of the pandemic in March.
The agency also recorded 26 new Covid-19-related deaths in September. This is also the most number of deaths recorded in a month. Covid-19-related deaths near the 100-mark as it ends September with 94 total deaths.
Total cases in the region also breached the 3,000-mark on September 29 after recording 67 new Covid-19 cases, which brought total cases to 3,028.
In terms of active cases, Davao Region ended the month with 549. Of this number 345 are asymptomatic, 177 are mild cases, and 27 are severe cases.
It can be noted, however, that mild cases in the region saw an increase beginning September 11. On September 11, the region only had 61 mild cases. It breached the 100-mark on September 23 when DOH-Davao recorded 101 mild cases. By September 30, mild cases reached 177, which currently accounts for 32.2 percent of all active cases in the region.
A total of 24,233 individuals were also tested in September by the Covid-19 testing laboratories in the region. Around 5.6 percent or 1,357 tested positive for the Sars-CoV-2, the virus causing the Covid-19. Of this number, 940 are from Davao Region while 417 are from other regions.
DOH-Davao has yet to issue a statement or additional information on the latest Covid-19 situation in Davao City.
As of September 30, 2020, Davao Region has 3,076 Covid-19 cases, of which 2,433 have recovered, 94 have died, and 549 are active cases.