DAVAO del Sur, including Davao City, is considered a high-risk area for the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) due to the increasing number of cases in recent weeks.
According to the October 6, 2020 Octa Research Covid-19 monitoring report, Davao del Sur and Davao City are among the areas outside Luzon "where the pandemic is getting worse" despite noting a downtrend in new Covid-19 cases in the Philippines.
Others on their list of high-risk areas are Benguet (including Baguio City), Iloilo (including Iloilo City), Misamis Oriental (including Cagayan de Oro), Negros Occidental (including Bacolod), Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Pangasinan (including Dagupan), South Cotabato (including General Santos), Surigao Del Sur, Western Samar and Zamboanga Del Sur (including Zamboanga City).
The report said there is an increase in daily attack rate per 1,000 compared to previous two weeks in these areas.
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines the attack rate as the proportion of an initially disease-free population that develops a disease, becomes injured or dies during a specified (usually limited) period.
From September 23 to 29, the attack rate in Davao del Sur and Davao City was 1.1 percent. This increased to 1.6 percent from September 30 to October 6.
From September 23 to 29, Davao City recorded 193 new Covid-19 cases, while Davao del Sur recorded only 29. From September 30 to October 6, Davao City logged 232 new Covid-19 cases, while Davao del Sur only logged 15.
The team from Octa Research, which is an independent and interdisciplinary research group of academics from the University of the Philippines (UP) and the University of Santo Tomas monitoring the state of Covid-19 in the Philippines, also observed a spike in hospital occupancy from September 7 to October 5.
Based on the recent data from the Southern Philippines Medical Center, the designate Covid-19 hospital in Davao City that also caters to the rest of the region, the occupancy rate for intensive care unit (ICU) beds allotted for Covid-19 patients was at 100 percent on October 5 while occupancy rate for ward beds for Covid-19 patients was at 93.37 percent.
In comparison, occupancy rate for ICU beds on September 7 was only at 45.45 percent and ward beds at 60.36 percent.
According to SPMC and DOH's critical utilization rate, an occupancy level that is between 71 and 100 percent is considered a "danger zone" level. An occupancy rate level between 31 to 70 percent is considered a "warning zone," and under "safe zone" when it is from 1 to 30 percent.
SPMC has 33 ICU beds and 247 ward beds allotted for Covid-19 patients.
It can be noted active cases in Davao City were well below the 300-mark since the pandemic began. However, it breached the 300-mark with 310 active cases on September 29 after logging 55 new Covid-19 cases. In less than a week, it breached the 400-mark on October 4 with 425 active cases after logging 47 new cases.
In Davao del Sur, it saw a steady rise in active cases starting on September 17, which had 25 active cases. From September 25 to October 5, active cases in the province were fluctuating within the 40s.
As of October 8, 2020, Davao City has 2,220 Covid-19 cases, with 1,714 recoveries, 92 deaths and 414 active cases. Davao del Sur has 222 total cases with 167 recoveries, eight deaths and 47 active cases.
In a bid to slow the Covid-19 transmission in these areas, researchers recommended that the national and local government "intensify their efforts at testing, tracing and isolation to reverse the increase of transmissions in these areas."
They also recommend the national government to "consider reverting to a stricter quarantine classification for the aforementioned areas.”
Disruptive
It would be "disruptive" to the businesses and the public to elevate Davao City back to a stricter community quarantine status in response to the surge of Covid-19 cases, Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio said in a radio interview on Friday, October 9.
Duterte-Carpio, who recently returned from her leave, said in a radio interview on 87.5 FM Davao City Disaster Radio she will not be recommending the city to go back to general community quarantine (GCQ). The city is currently under modified general community quarantine (MGCQ).
“Para sa akoa as mayor, dili maayo nga mag open-close, open-close [ta]. Disruptive siya sa mga tao kanang mag-open ka [sa city], then isirado napud nimo, then abrihan napud nimo. Disruptive siya sa negosyo, and sa mga tao mismo," she said.
(In my personal opinion, it would not be good that we open then we close, then reopen these establishments because of the changing of the quarantine status. It would be disruptive to the city, businesses, and the public.)
The mayor added the public would be "desensitize" with the opening and closing of establishments.
"Para sa akoa it should be MGCQ and it should be managed dinha nga MGCQ ang form of community quarantine (I think we should remain to be under MGCQ and manage things in a way that we remain under MGCQ). But of course, it’s a pandemic and we’re all under the IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases). Kung unsay isulti sa IATF ginasunod nato (We will follow whatever decisions they make),” Duterte-Carpio said.
IATF is a task force organized by the executive of the Philippine government to respond to affairs concerning emerging infectious diseases, particularly Covid-19, in the country. The national body is the one recommending the quarantine status of each locality, with the approval from President Rodrigo Duterte.
Duterte-Carpio said the increase in Covid-19 cases in the city is no longer surprising since Davao City has shifted to MGCQ beginning July this year.
The City Government during this period had lifted some regulations, including the curfew, 24-hour liquor ban, and the mandatory use of the food and medicine passes. More establishments had also resumed operation under limited capacity. Air, land, and sea travel within and outside the region had gradually normalized.
The mayor said in response to the increasing Covid-19 cases, there is a need to intensify its campaign and information on basic health protocols: observing two-meter physical distancing, wearing of face masks or face shields in public areas, and frequent handwashing.
She also said the City will continuously improve its "Stay Home" campaign, urging the public to avoid unnecessary travels outside their residences. The public is urged to only go out for essential purposes.
The mayor said there is a need to have a head-on solution in addressing the Covid-19 pandemic, considering that the virus will not be gone anytime soon unless a vaccine or cure will be rolled out.
"This will be for another two years ang kaning Covid-19 sa tibuok kalibutan (worldwide). Maong kinahanglan masabtan sa tao unsa ang kinahanglan nilang buhaton, and unsa ilang regulations to control atong cases," she said.
(Covid-19 may be around for the next two years. That is why the people need to know what they have to do and the regulations to follow to control our cases here.)