Literatus: Covid-19: Hope by the numbers

Literatus: Covid-19: Hope by the numbers

LAST month, this column proposed the idea of “surviving naturally” during the Covid-19 pandemic. Current statistics somehow helped in demonstrating that natural immunity can eventually help us pass through this public health challenge.

Recovery data indicate recoveries of 294,865 Filipinos as of this writing, which means that this quarter of a million Filipinos may now have the necessary antibodies to fight off future Covid-19 infections.

However, the presence of antibodies can only be confirmed through a Covid-19 antibody test. Thus, it should be a best practice for those who had been pronounced as recovered to have undergone an antibody test before leaving the quarantine facilities. Otherwise, they must have themselves tested in public or private laboratories offering these tests, to ensure that their natural immunity is holding up against the coronavirus.

This advice for getting tested for Covid-19 antibodies goes also for those who have not been tested with Covid-19 antigens. The result will determine if they had been naturally immunized already against Covid-19 or not. If a negative Covid-19 antibody test resulted, then cautious exposure to human transmission is still necessary.

Here are other causes for hope in our state under the Covid-19 pandemic based on statistical outcomes:

First, our fatality rate is low at 1.86 percent. This is so even if the Philippines ranks 94th of 178 countries. Even so, that is a hopeful fatality rate for Covid-19. SARS has a fatality rate of 15 percent while MERS has 35 percent.

Second, our care recovery rate is also very good at 83.83 percent. This is so even if our recovery rate is only ranked 82nd out of 178 countries.

Third, our doubling rate is also relatively long at 97.7 days or more than three months.

This means that, because of our current cautious practice in general, Covid-19 positive cases can only double in our communities after three months. These three months allow our health authorities to intervene to reduce more of our positive cases, which can increase further the doubling rate.

With Christmas Day—the celebration of the birth of our Lord Jesus Christ—barely two months from now, there are so many reasons for hope in the year 2020. That is something to thank God for amid the blunders of humans in our history.

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