WHILE the others continue to play coy about their presidential ambition, former senator Antonio Trillanes declared the other day his intention to seek the highest office of the Republic in next year’s election. Whether or not the adage about the early bird catching the worm will work in his favor, we will not know until after May 9, 2022. Still, this early Trillanes has already earned credit for being straightforward.
I do not expect an avalanche of similar declarations to immediately follow Trillanes’s lead, but it surely will not take long before the others take off their masks and admit that they, too want to live in the palace by the Pasig river. Of course, they will not be that blunt; candor is not a politician’s strongest suit. I can almost picture them saying with as much solemnity as they can feign, that they have arrived at the decision after much reflection, deliberation and listening to the people’s clamor and that they’re doing it only because they want to serve the people. Yes, all that crap.
The Comelec has scheduled the filing of certificates of candidacy (COCs) on Oct. 1 to 8, barely five months away. The election itself is less than a year from today. Since the period for filing the COCs is true to all elective positions, we can expect frenzied election-related activity not just in the national but more so in the local level. However, many decisions at the local level will depend on developments at the national.
It has something to do with funding and benefitting from a bandwagon. In 2016, for example, alliances that you thought were built on granite quickly disintegrated as candidates gravitated towards the leading and more popular candidate. It was true then as it has always been (and will always be) that a politician’s permanent ally is his own interest. He is married to it.
Being with the party in power does not always yield the desired benefits, however. Take the 2013 Cebu City election for mayor, for example. The Liberal Party was in power and both Mike Rama and Tommy Osmeña wanted to be President Aquino’s anointed one. Tommy eventually won Aquino’s blessing but not the mayorship. Rama, who, to this day, continues to moan about how he was shabbily treated by Aquino and Mar Roxas, beat Osmeña, although by a negligible margin.
And remember what happened in 2010. President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo endorsed her defense secretary, Gilberto Teodoro, to succeed her. The endorsement did not improve Teodoro’s standing among the voters, however. In fact, some people called her endorsement a kiss of death. In the end, Teodoro lost hugely to Aquino.
But President Duterte is different because he remains immensely popular heading towards the end of his reign, unlike Macapagal-Arroyo who logged very poor ratings during her time. The wise money will be on his candidates, including whoever will be running for President.
The thought must have crossed Trillanes’ mind even before he told the alliance of forces opposed to Duterte that he was ready to lead them into battle. As a former military officer, he must have studied the terrain and, liking what he saw, concluded that Malacañang was his for the taking. Let’s see if candidates validate his assessment by deserting their old friends and casting their lot with him.