DAILY Covid-19 cases are declining nationwide, but the numbers remain high and continue to exceed the peak in August 2020 and the spike in March 2021.
The Department of Health (DOH) reported less than 5,000 new cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) for the second day in a row on Wednesday, June 30, 2021, bringing the total number of new infections recorded in the month of June to 182,258.
This is about 5.5 percent lower than the 192,841 cases in the month of May 2021, but 6.6 percent higher than the 170,936 cases in March 2021 and around 43 percent higher than the 127,465 cases reported in the peak month of August in 2020.
Dr. Alethea de Guzman, director of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau, said new cases averaged 5,749 a day over the recent seven days from June 23 to 29, lower than the 6,479 at the start of the month from June 2 to 8.
The daily average is now nearly half the 10,845 peak on April 9 to 15, but is still higher than the around 4,000 a day average in August 2020.
In its case bulletin on Wednesday, the DOH reported 4,509 new cases as testing output remained low at 35,816, with six laboratories failing to submit their data to the Covid-19 Document Repository System on June 28. The daily positivity rate was 11.3 percent.
The new cases brought the total case count in the Philippines to 1,412,559, after the removal of seven duplicates and one case that was found to have tested negative.
Of the total, there remained 48,649 active cases, falling below 50,000 again after six days.
There were 5,839 new recoveries, increasing the recoveries to 1,339,248, or 94.8 percent of the total count.
However, deaths exceeded 100 for the second consecutive day. The DOH case bulletin reported 105 additional mortalities, including 49 cases that were previously tagged as recoveries.
These raised the Covid-19 death toll to 24,662 and the case fatality rate to 1.75 percent, after remaining at 1.74 percent for two straight weeks.
De Guzman, in a presentation during a town hall session Wednesday, said the slow decline in cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is being mirrored in neighboring provinces.
On Tuesday, June 29, De Guzman said the highest number of new cases among cities and provinces was recorded at 377 in Davao City, followed by 238 in Cavite, 134 in Bacolod City, 127 in Bohol and 113 in Quezon City.
Among the regions, Davao Region posted the highest number of new cases at 723, followed by Calabarzon with 640, Western Visayas with 536, NCR with 474 and Central Luzon with 318.
VisMin
As of June 28, De Guzman said four regions, all in the Visayas and Mindanao, were at high risk because daily cases remained high. These were Davao Region, Western Visayas, Soccsksargen and Eastern Visayas.
She said cases in Davao Region have continued to increase. The healthcare and ICU utilization rates were also classified as high risk at 71.43 percent and 86.22 percent, respectively, for the entire region.
Davao City and Davao del Norte were flagged because of their high average daily attack rates of 13.59 and 9.66, respectively, per 100,000 population from June 13 to 26.
Davao City’s ICU occupancy was critical at 96 percent while its healthcare utilization rate (HCUR) was high risk at 76.9 percent. Davao del Norte’s HCUR and ICU occupancy were both high risk at 71.43 percent and 82 percent, respectively.
Davao de Oro was flagged because its hospital beds for Covid-19 were almost full at 96.23 percent. Its attack rate was low, however, at 5.11 per 100,000.
Davao del Sur was also flagged because of a high average daily attack rate of 7.16 per 100,000 population, although its HCUR was still in the safe zone.
Other regions with high risk ICU utilization rates (ICUR) were Western Visayas (83.17 percent), Soccsksargen (74.29 percent) and Bicol Region (72.62 percent).
Central Visayas and Caraga regions were classified as moderate risk, although cases in Central Visayas have started to plateau following a sharp decline.
Central Visayas
De Guzman noted that cases in Central Visayas increased regionwide by 21 percent in the recent two weeks compared to cases in the previous two weeks.
Both healthcare and ICU utilization rates in Central Visayas, however, remained in the safe zone at 39.08 percent and 21.95 percent, respectively. Caraga’s healthcare and ICU utilization rates were 53.01 percent and 59.65 percent, respectively.
Two of the four provinces in Central Visayas, Negros Oriental and Bohol, have been flagged because of their high average daily attack rates per 100,000 population at 11.72 and 8.05, respectively, for the June 13 to 26 period.
The healthcare and ICU utilization rates of Negros Oriental and Bohol have improved, with Bohol’s ICU occupancy in the safe zone at only 27.27 percent. Its healthcare utilization, however, is at moderate risk at 60.8 percent.
Negros Oriental is considered at moderate risk, with healthcare utilization of 63.96 percent and ICU occupancy of 65 percent.
Western Visayas
In Western Visayas, five areas have been flagged, namely, Iloilo City, Bacolod City, Aklan, Guimaras and Antique. Regionwide, cases were declining, De Guzman said.
Iloilo City had the highest average daily attack rate per 100,000 population for June 13 to 26 at 20.6, followed by Bacolod City with 19.66. These were, however, lower than the 23.6 and 21.55, respectively, in the previous two weeks on May 30 to June 12.
Iloilo City has a high risk HCUR at 84.1 percent while its ICU beds for Covid-19 are almost fully occupied at 99.1 percent.
Aklan and Guimaras have attack rates of 11.49 and 8.75, respectively. Healthcare and ICU utilization rates were moderate, except in Aklan where the HCUR is still in the safe zone.
Antique Province has a low attack rate of 4.42 per 100,000 population, but its ICU beds are fully occupied. The DOH report did not state how many ICU beds have been designated for Covid-19 patients in the province.
In Eastern Visayas, cases were still on the rise, De Guzman said. Four areas were also flagged, namely, Tacloban City, Southern Leyte, Biliran and Leyte.
Tacloban City’s attack rate per 100,000 population increased to 17.56 in the recent week from June 13 to 26 compared to 13.1 on May 30 to June 12.
Other areas in Mindanao that were flagged were Zamboanga del Norte, Cagayan de Oro City, Misamis Occidental, South Cotabato, General Santos City, Cotabato City, Surigao del Sur, Butuan City, Agusan del Norte and Dinagat Islands.
These flagged areas are under either modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) until July 15 or general community quarantine (GCQ) until July 31, 2021.
Areas with high risk or critical healthcare or ICU utilization rates are also at higher risk of a sustained increase in deaths.
De Guzman said deaths peaked in the NCR Plus in April and increased in the rest of the country in May. This increase was sustained in June. (Marites Villamor-Ilano / SunStar Philippines)