COALITION politics is the key for the opposition to put up a good, winning fight versus the administration backed bets. Their inability to put up a real coalition, and content themselves to engage the administration bets in a multi-cornered fight would mean to surrender public and national interests and vow to selfish interests.
This is the obvious state now. The administration bet is shaping in favor of Sara, and her probable vice presidents are no less Bongbong Marcos, Imee Marcos, and most recently, the name of a much younger and dynamic Senator Win Gatchalian has emerged as one of the interests of the Sara camp.
Notwithstanding the firm stand of Sara to run as President, I think the administration has already accepted that the Senator Bong Go-PRRD tandem has less winnability chances. The pros and cons arguments have already been debated quite extensively in public.
The incumbents always have the cutting edge over challengers, especially if the battle is multi-cornered. Unless of course the challengers fight as one coalition and put up a highly winnable slate.
For now, it looks like the opposition is in disarray. Barely few weeks to go for the filing of certificates of candidacy (COCs), the opposition have so much bets on the side, Paquiao, Ping Lacson, Bongbong Marcos, Isko, Leni Robredo, Grace Poe, retired Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio, and I don’t know who else.
Unless they fight as one, there's no way they can win in their crusade.
The same is true in many localities.
In Bacolod, for example, my bold and daring analytics is that the challengers of the incumbent mayor and vice mayor have less chances of winning their fight. The challenger for mayoralty is an outsider, who despite his intention to change and develop Bacolod, has really nothing to prove that he can do what he intends simply because of his hodgepodge and contrary track records in his own city and district.
The challenger for vice mayor, for which I don’t really know who among them, I heard so many, are returning politicians, mostly losers, and one incumbent. Of course, they can always try to gamble their way to become public servants again. The challengers for councilor are likewise many.
If it is true the rumor milling around that Congressman Greg Gasataya has already gone separate ways from the incumbent ruling party, and now prefers to run as independent, then someone might challenge him, whether from the ruling party or other political circle. It would be interesting as well.
But again, to work in parallel, even separate ways, they all will have harder routes to traverse to reach their goal. How I wish they could work as one strong coalition. But given their respective individual track records and political characters, including the key figures working to unseat the incumbents, I doubt if they could work as one real united front. At their best, they could pretend to be one, but work as many separate, opposing warriors.
Like in the national level, the local incumbents, especially with intensive and extensive development programs and projects, and implacable public service initiatives, and working coherently as one, are much harder to be unseated.
In Philippine politics, coalition matters much, as it could be a cutting, winning edge, or without it, could be a route to decisive defeat.
Just a perspective. Kudos to all!