THE coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) reproduction number in Metro Manila has significantly gone down to 1.20 as of January 19, 2022, from 2.95 a week ago, Octa research fellow Guido David said Sunday, January 23.
Reproduction rate refers to a number of people being infected by a single case. It is one of the indicators of the trend of Covid-19 transmission.
David said the Covid-19 one-week growth rate in Metro Manila also decreased to -42 percent, which indicates a "downward trajectory in new cases.”
The average daily attack rate (Adar) in the region also dipped to 72 per 100,000 population.
Adar refers to the average number of new cases within a certain period per 100,000 individuals.
Despite the decrease in numbers, David said Metro Manila remained “very high risk” for Covid-19.
He urged the public to continue to practice extreme caution and strictly comply with health protocols in public areas.
Aside from NCR, the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Bataan, Kalinga, Rizal, Mountain Province, La union, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan, Apayao, Bulacan, Ifugao, Pampanga, and Batangas were also at “very high risk” for Covid-19, based on their Adar, according to David.
He said highly urbanized cities such as Angeles, Bacolod, Cagayan de Oro, Cebu, Davao, Lapulapu, Lucena, Mandaue and Tacloban were also at “very high” Covid-19 outbreak, based on their ADAR.
The cities of Baguio and Iloilo were classified under severe outbreak with 152.39 and 82.38 Adar, respectively.
Butuan City, General Santos City Iligan City, Olongapo City and Zamboanga City were under high risk, considering their Adar of less than 25.
While Metro Manila registered a negative one-week growth rate that indicates a decline in cases, David said the growth rate in several highly urbanized cities remained high, which David earlier said indicates acceleration of infection.
He said as of January 22, the one-week growth rate in Bacolod, Baguio, Butuan, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo, Lapu-Lapu, Puerto Princesa and Zamboanga City were more than 100 percent.
Cebu City registered a 209-percent one-week growth rate, Davao City with 289, Iligan Citywith 243, and Mandaue City with 258 percent.
All the said highly urbanized cities outside Metro Manila were also classified under “very high risk” based on their reproduction rate.
The Philippines recorded 30,552 fresh Covid-19 infections on Saturday, January 22, bringing the total tally of active cases to 280,619.