THE Covid-19 outbreak in the cities of Cebu, Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu is still “very high” based on their average daily attack rate (Adar) as of Jan. 22, 2022.
Adar refers to the average number of new cases within a certain period per 100,000 individuals.
The Adar in Cebu City was at 56.16 per 100,000 population on Jan. 22. It is followed by Lapu-Lapu City at 49.18 Adar and Mandaue City at 33,400 Adar, according to the report by Octa research fellow Guido David on Sunday, Jan. 23, 2022.
The Adar in Cebu City increased by 42.15 from 14.01 last Jan. 14, while the Adar in Lapu-Lapu City increased by 26.38 from 22.80 last Jan. 14. Mandaue City was not yet included in Guido’s Jan. 14 report.
Based on the numbers, David told SunStar Cebu that “the cases are still increasing and will continue to increase.”
“It will take some time before the peak is reached,” he said.
Based on the 2020 census, Cebu City has a population of 964,169; Mandaue City, 364,116; and Lapu-Lapu City, 497,604.
The Cebu City Emergency Operations Center (EOC) reported that as of Jan. 21, the city had 5,940 active cases in 77 barangays.
Cebu City’s daily positivity rate hit 56.62 percent on Friday, the highest since Covid-19 pandemic reached the city in March 2020. According to the World Health Organization, one of the indicators that the epidemic is controlled is by having a positivity rate of less than five percent for the last two weeks. Positivity rate or percent positive is the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that come out positive.
As of 8:30 p.m. Sunday, the EOC had not released to media its Jan. 22 Covid-19 updates.
As of Jan. 22, the active cases of Lapu-Lapu and Mandaue stood at 1,273 and 1,384, according to the Department of Health 7 daily Covid bulletin.
Other HUCs
Aside from the cities of Cebu, Mandaue, and Lapu-Lapu, other highly urbanized cities with “very high risk” status include Angeles, Bacolod, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Lucena, and Tacloban.
The cities of Baguio and Iloilo were classified as “severe outbreak” with 152.39 and 82.38 Adar., Butuan City, General Santos City Iligan City, Olongapo City, and Zamboanga City were under “high risk,” considering their Adar of less than 25.
Reproduction rate
As to Covid-19 reproduction number in Cebu City, the number had gone down a bit to 3.73 as of Jan. 19, 2022, from 5.32 last Jan. 11.
Reproduction rate refers to a number of people being infected by a single case. It is one of the indicators of the trend of Covid-19 transmission.
Cebu City’s reproduction number was included in the report of David.
Lapu-Lapu City’s reproduction rate increased to 49.18 on Jan. 19 from 22.80 last Jan. 11. Reproduction rate in Mandaue City was 33.40 on Jan. 19.
All the highly urbanized cities outside Metro Manila — including the cities of Cebu, Mandaue and Lapu-Lapu — were also classified under “very high risk” based on their reproduction rate.
Growth rate
Cebu City’s one-week growth rate (Jan. 16-22) was at 209 percent. The one-week growth in Mandaue City was at 258 percent. In Lapu-Lapu City, it was at 102 percent.
Aside from the three cities, Davao City registered a 289 percent growth rate and Iligan City, 243 percent.
While Metro Manila registered a negative one-week growth rate that indicates a decline in cases, David said the growth rate in several highly urbanized cities remained high, which David earlier said indicates an acceleration of infection.
He said as of January 22, the one-week growth rates in Bacolod, Baguio, Butuan, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo, Lapu-Lapu, Puerto Princesa, and Zamboanga City were more than 100 percent.
The Covid-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila has significantly gone down to 1.20 as of Jan. 19, from 2.95 a week ago, David said Sunday.
David said the Covid-19 one-week growth rate in Metro Manila also decreased to -42 percent, which indicates a “downward trajectory in new cases.”
Despite the decrease in numbers, David said Metro Manila remained “very high risk” for Covid-19.
He urged the public to continue to practice extreme caution and strictly comply with health protocols in public areas.
Aside from NCR, the provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Bataan, Kalinga, Rizal, Mountain Province, La Union, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan, Apayao, Bulacan, Ifugao, Pampanga, and Batangas were also at “very high risk” for Covid-19, based on their Adar, according to David. (KAL, TPM / SunStar Philippines)