AS THE May 2022 elections draw near, Vice President Leni Gerona Robredo emerged anew for the third time as the most preferred presidential bet in the February 3 to 8 survey conducted by independent pollster Solidarity Against Fraudulent Elections (Safe) 2022-Philippines held in the City of San Fernando, Pampanga with 190,056 total registered voters.
Safe 2022-Philippines is a vigilant voters rights organization around the countryside -- independent, non-stock, non-profit, research and think tank institute -- that does both public and private surveys, and consultancy services in politics and business.
It accepts research commissions from politicians and businessmen provided the work is non-exclusive and the survey data are kept in its archives and ultimately open for public use.
The survey, with more than 10 percent of the total registered voters or equivalent to a total of 19,068 respondents, particularly asked the respondents: “On the basis of good governance, whom would you vote for on this list as President, Governor, and City Mayor if the May 09, 2022 elections were to take place today and Why?”
Covid-19 response, integrity, proven leadership, experience, and achievements have been the prominent issues for candidates.
Survey result showed that 41.2 percent of Fernandinos are expressing preference for the presidential bid of Robredo in the 2022 national elections.
Coming in second place, by a wide margin, was ex-senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, who garnered 23.8 percent.
Meanwhile, Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso was in third place, with 14.1 percent, followed by Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson who got 8.4 percent, Senator Emmanuel “Manny Pacman” Pacquiao who took 7.68 percent, while 4.68 percent were undecided.
Robredo has visited Pampanga four times in January and February alone during the ribbon cutting of campaign headquarters in the City of San Fernando, distribution of antigen kits in the City Government of Angeles with Mayor Carmelo Lazatin Jr., Clark Freeport visit and campus visit for the students, alumni and school personnel of Chevalier School, and Holy Family Academy held at Systems Plus College in Balibago, Angeles City.
Robredo was also the guest of honor and speaker in the recently held Ten Outstanding Fernandinos Awarding (Tofa) Ceremony.
Former mayor/congressman and mayoral candidate Oscar Rodriguez threw his support behind Robredo, women’s rights champion and the only female aspirant in the heated 2022 presidential race.
Rodriguez praised Robredo for showing how leaders can perform their duties with “integrity, efficiency, and compassion.”
Earlier, Robredo also emerged as the top pick among the presidential candidates in the 2022 elections in two separate surveys with 41 percent, according to Data Analysis & Research for Elections (D.A.R.E.) Survey conducted on December 27 to 31, 2021 to January 3 to 7, 2022 and held in Angeles City, and the other on January 29 to February 5, 2022 held in the City of San Fernando by the Voice Newsweekly Online Presidential Survey where Robredo gained 65.75 percent followed by Marcos with 26.06 percent.
Robredo’s stellar performance in the presidential fora, debates, interviews, Covid and rapid disaster response added to the momentum and massive rallies that have come out for her during the first week of the official campaign.
Dennis Pineda still top poll choice
At the local level, reelectionist Governor Dennis Pineda is leading with 80.5 percent compared to 14.49 percent obtained by his lone rival Danilo Baylon, while 4.98 percent were undecided.
Reelectionist Vice Governor Lilia Pineda, running unopposed, obtained 99 percent Voters’ Level of Confidence.
Dennis Pineda gained 80.43 percent in the Voice Newsweekly Online Survey, while Baylon garnered 19.57 percent.
Oscar Rodriguez, Fernandinos’ best choice
Meanwhile, the leading choices in the city level for mayoral race were former and incumbent candidates in different positions.
Former congressman and mayor Rodriguez lead the survey with 25.34 percent amid his late filing of Certificate of Candidacy (COC) on November 15, 2021, while ABC president and Dolores Barangay Chairman Vilma Caluag got 19.79 percent.
Vice Mayor Jimmy Lazatin placed third, with 18.63 percent, followed by Pampanga Third District Board Member Rosve Henson with 15.41 percent, and Sandy Quiwa with 3.84 percent. About 16.95 percent were undecided.
Rodriguez also topped the Voice Newsweekly Online Survey with 59.93 percent, followed by Henson with 38.55 percent, Lazatin 0.73 percent, Quiwa 0.45 percent and Caluag with 0.34 percent.
Common preferences/comments for city mayor
(1) RODRIGUEZ -- Name recall, world class city mayor, father of San Fernando cityhood, scholarship programs, local and international awardee based on good governance, encourages multi-sectoral / people’s participation in governance, Covid response, free legal assistance, livelihood/employment programs, solid waste segregation and management, disaster mitigation and management, traffic management, infrastructural development, from womb to tomb programs, human rights advocate, integrity, visibility, principled, staunch supporter of Vice-President Robredo’s presidential bid.
(2) CALUAG -- Popularity in Tiktok and other social media platforms, health services, scholarship programs, affiliation in various organizations, Covid “ayuda”, name recall, supporter of gubernatorial candidate Baylon.
(3) LAZATIN -- Name recall, emergency response, scholarship programs, arts and culture, visibility, Covid response, supporter of presidentiable Manila Mayor Moreno.
(4) HENSON -- Covid response, livelihood projects, medical assistance, visibility, closely identified with Governor Dennis Pineda.
(5) QUIWA -- Name recall
Mechanics and criteria
The latest Safe 2022 Philippines survey was conducted by five teams with interactive methodology or face-to-face interviews of respondents identified in random streets of the total 35 barangays amid the decline of Covid-19 cases.
It had interviewed 19,068 respondents (more than 10 percent of the 190,056 total registered voters), 18 years old-above, and City of San Fernando registered voters and residents. It has an error margin ranging from +/ 1.13 percent to +/- 2.26 percent.
Findings done during February 3-8, 2022 pre-campaign/campaign period
1. “Command voting” is limited: Of every five voters, four say -- most people here decide by themselves who to vote for amidst the emergence of multi-sectoral groups in the barangays, and only one says that -- most people here are just told by the local leaders whom to vote for.
2. “Social interest dominates over personal interest”: Of every five voters, four say -- I will vote for a candidate if most people will benefit from him/her even if personally I will not, and only one says that -- I will vote for a candidate if I will benefit personally from him/her even if most people will not.
3. “Voters take time to study their choices”: In a survey done more than 60 days after the substitution deadline in the filing of the Certificate of Candidacy on November 15, 2021, 56 percent said they had made their choices for at least a week ago, two percent said they had made their choices in the last two weeks, and 24 percent said they had only just made their choices early February.
4. “Independent influences dominate over partisan influences on votes”: 54 percent said that their votes were a personal decision, and five percent said that they were influenced by family relations, friends, or their school. Only 21 percent said their votes were influenced by partisan sources, which include opposition candidates (seven percent), administration candidates (five percent), media advertisements (four percent), local officials or candidates (two percent), independent candidates (one percent), and religious groups (one percent).
5. “Voting intentions are relatively stable”: Only 27 percent said that they might change their votes from what they told the survey pollster earlier in the interview; 53 percent said their voting decision was definite, and 20 percent called it already probable. (PR)