There are currently survey propaganda stunts. And even reputable survey firms could already have become unwitting tools for these.
Those familiar with surveys know that they can be manipulated. I worked with a radio station in my early years in traditional media and am a bit familiar with how surveys can be manipulated. Surveys are a guide for advertisers and determine the commercial viability of a radio station.
Just recently, two of Cebu’s top radio stations engaged in a hilarious exchange on surveys. Tipped that a survey was being conducted, the two battled on who will get the number one rating. One accused the other of manipulation by determining on what day a community would be targeted by surveyors and going there in advance.
To make sure that when surveyors pass by the station would be the one that would be blaring on air, its personnel were accused of giving away free transistor radio sets capable of picking up the signal of only one radio station–their station. To counter this, a rival radio station campaigned to have the radio sets replaced with those capable of picking up the signals of all radio stations.
Like in elections, it becomes just a matter of time before politicians master the manipulation game. A survey firm may be reputable, but is it possible for their surveyors to end up being compromised? Targeting only pro-Duterte households in every survey done could be one. Politicians can, of course, use other means to manipulate the survey results on the ground.
The manipulation result could be what we are seeing now. How can Ferdinand Marcos Jr. become a frontrunner in electoral surveys with Leni Robredo a poor second when it is the tandem of Robredo with Francis Pangilinan that is bringing in record numbers of people in mass gatherings?
This has prompted candidates to seek other methods of determining the people’s pulse other than surveys. In the online world, Google Search is increasingly being relied upon to predict election results. This should also prod reputable survey firms to check how deeply their methodology has been compromised.
As for the presidential polls, I have always been confident that Marcos will lose in the elections, historical revisionism and survey manipulation notwithstanding. The result of the recent elections in the US, plus the gigantic crowds following the Leni-Kiko tandem around are the sources of my confidence. Plus the possible effort of the US to influence the outcome of the Philippine elections after China succeeded in doing that in 2016.
In the US, Trumpism is on the retreat and liberal democrats are back on the saddle. Like who would have thought that Donald Trump would be defeated by Joe Biden? The pendulum of public opinion seems to be swaying towards the left-of-center again.
Marcos may be the frontrunner in surveys, but people power is back not as a form of insurrection but as an important gauge of voter preference. Because of that, the Leni candidacy can be considered as unprecedented.