PROJECTIONS are here.
With the elections still three weeks away, learned and mature voters can already project who the winners will be.
Political observers can safely say who the shoo-ins are by now. That is, of course, sans any huge scandal, a giant misstep, a criminal act, and God forbid, death.
Local election results, compared to national level, are quite easier to project based on prevailing actual situation on the ground – machinery, logistics, following, and even surveys. Add to these is the fact that how deep is one candidate’s pockets are can help bring desirable results for an aspirant. In many cases, even quality and quantity of tarpaulins posted tell of winnability of a candidate.
Here are but some of the common projections:
PAMPANGA GOVERNOR. Gov. Dennis “Delta” Pineda is a winner, hands down. Not just in the upcoming elections but in many aspects of governing the province. His re-election would come easy. Not just because of the factors mentioned above but because of his accomplishments.
The challenge to his leadership, which he passed in flying colors during the height of the pandemic, sums it all up. It’s a feather in the cap.
One must remember that the Covid-19 was not like any other disaster where handling can be learned in trainings and seminars. It was a journey to unchartered waters where the Governor navigated very well.
The battle for governorship is all over except for the final results. It is but the actual tally on May 9 that is being settled. Like the basketball aficionado that he is, Governor Dennis has the height which in the sport always means might. His squad has nothing but power players with streak shooting, rattling dunks, crossover moves, passing and fastbreak plays, rim protection and impeccable ball handling abilities. His team covers both ends of the playing court -- offense and defense.
Some people would tend to yawn while waiting for the final buzzer to make official Gov. Pineda’s win.
MABALACAT CITY. The subject of envy by Pampanga’s 20 other LGUs with its windfall from GIE (Gross Income Earned) shares from Clark locators. The funds, about P700 million annually, are being utilized well where these LGUs, including the Provincial Government are benefitting. Mayor Cris Garbo has spread the sunshine good, bringing his stature not just as a father of needy Mabalaquenos but also as a big brother to other mayors and leaders of the rest of Pampanga towns.
At home, Garbo and Vice Mayor Geld Aquino has tandemed well to bring about livelihood, jobs, financial aid, hospitalization subsidies, medicines, burial assistance and many other social services. Their campaign did not commence on Comelec-appointed date but way ahead with the fulfillment of their mandates.
The unprecedented forms of assistance alone make Garbo and Aquino not just more winnable. What Garbo has accomplished since 2017 has been rubbing off on his whole team. In the 2019 elections, Garbo and Aquino had 20,000 plus winning margins over Christian Halili and Boking Morales, respectively.
He and Aquino got very high satisfaction ratings that average above 80 percent levels. A reputable firm in research and poll survey that has been commissioned by a top private corporation issued the rating.
Non-partisan and unbiased at that, the survey (conducted by PROBE) is the most credible and has been relied by concerned Pampanga LGUs (and even some in Bulacan) for many elections now. What makes Garbo uncatchable is his rating of 75 percent in the voter preference survey. This means that three out of four voters want him elected once again as mayor.
Aquino has also scored big at 71 percent. If translated to actual votes on May 9, their opponents (comeback tandem of Morales and Halili, respectively) may need to come up stronger in the city’s politics in the future. Boking has cityhood and city college to his belt while Halili dons his father’s image who was Mabalacat mayor for 20 years.
As to my friend and kumpadre Deng Pangilinan, noble and worthy intentions for Mabalaquenos he always has, would end up with a winning heart that projections may never have.
ANGELES CITY. One will be both foolish and foolhardy to say that Mayor Carmelo “Pogi” Lazatin, Jr. is in a tough fight for his re-election bid.
While I may hate echoing it (yes, I’m merely parroting what Angelenos often say), the good councilor and pro urban poor Amos Rivera is but a token opponent.
But that does not in any way denigrate on what Mayor Pogi had done for the people of Angeles City to merit his re-election. He has more than exceeded people’s expectations insofar as delivery of much needed services in the premier city of Pampanga.
Mayor Pogi more than took his oath seriously. And it was the best way to honor his father, the late Congressman Carmelo “Tarzan” Lazatin who also led the city to great success.
The “Junior” is his own man, delivering what he has pledged to the people in the campaign more than three years ago. He is more than just the “ditak a salita, dakal a gawa” leader as he now, I heard, delivers eloquent speeches that win not just votes but hearts of Angelenos.
As for the Vice Mayor, it is a no brainer. Vicky Vega-Cabigting will be re-elected definitely even as she simply tends to family, making hubby and media colleague Arthur happier.
FIRST DISTRICT. The other namesake of the patriarch, Congressman Carmelo Jon Lazatin II is running unopposed. Why did he deserve a space in this column on projections?
Let us put a little context and ask why no one has put up a challenge. But that may seem to require a long narrative that can be encapsulated into one phrase – his overwhelming win in 2019.
Jon won with a 45,407 margin over Yeng Guiao three years ago, more than doubling his 21,676 lead in 2016.
With such convincing wins, who would dare challenge him?
Cause and effect or vice versa led one thing to another. The ultimate result? He made history as he is the very first candidate in the first district of Pampanga to not have any challenger.
Apung Tarzan in his very first try in 1988 ran against 9 other candidates. In the elections every three years thereafter for Congress (and even for City Hall), he was not without worthy opponents that included brilliant lawyers, outstanding businessmen and even seasoned politicians.
Cong Jon, the formal person that he is, has the mold of a legislator. His three terms at Congress just makes him ripe and ready to face the city for mayorship as he and brother Pogi would swap places in 2025 where the latter would be just as remarkably fitting. Take a bow there IC Calaguas.
We do not project his win next month but in 2025 as Angeles City’s new chief executive. Possibly.