OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said the possible resurgence of coronavirus disease (Covid-19), which may happen “soon,” may push the active cases in the country to 50,000 to 100,000.
David compared the Philippines’ Covid-19 situation to South Africa and India, which experienced a spike in cases in a span of one week due to the new sub-variants of the highly transmissible Omicron strain -- the BA.4, BA.5 and its sublineage, the BA.2.12.
“Bakit concerning ito? Kasi ‘yung situation sa atin, medyo sumusunod tayo sa situation ng a few countries like South Africa, India, and Indonesia,” he said.
(Why is this concerning? Because we are following the situation of a few countries like South Africa, India and Indonesia.)
“Dahil sa pagtaas ng kaso sa South Africa at India, I think it is very likely na makakakita tayo ng pagtaas ng bilang kaso sa Pilipinas sometime in the near future. Hindi ko masasabi kung kailan ‘yan, kung sa May or sa June, pero dahil nakikita na natin ito sa South Africa at sa India, it is likely na mangyayari dito,” he added.
(Because of the spike in cases in South Africa and India, I think it is very likely that we also see an increase in cases in the Philippines sometime in the near future. I cannot say when it will happen, whether in May or June, but we see the surge in South Africa and India and it will likely happen here in the Philippines.)
Octa’s projection is lower than the 500,000 active cases projected by the Department of Health earlier when the country experienced another surge.
The DOH earlier said it is continuously monitoring developments in the said sub-variants, noting that it should not be any cause of concern.
Authorities are also closely monitoring the XE recombinant, which is the mutant of BA.1 and the BA.2 sub-variants of Omicron and which is yet to be detected in the country.
David said once the XE recombinant enters the country, it will cause the spike in Covid-19 cases.
David urged the public to continue to adhere to minimum health protocols, especially the wearing of face masks, to avoid contracting the virus.
He also again cited the importance of vaccination against Covid-19, not only the primary series but most especially the booster doses to avoid severe or critical infection.
He said that for now, the country remains under very low risk for Covid-19 and that the slight increase of cases in some areas has no significance.
As of April 24, the country has a total of 13,660 active cases.
So far, 66,854,770 individuals in the country, including the pediatric population or 74.28 percent of the target population, are fully vaccinated, while 12,641,887 adults have received booster doses. (SunStar Philippines)