WHICH influence more: surveys or the heavens?
SURVEYS FAVOR BONGBONG. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte-Carpio have been consistently leading the surveys. In April 16-21, 2022 Pulse Asia survey, BBM kept his lead with 56 percent, against Leni Robredo’s 23 percent. In April 2022 Octa Research poll, BBM topped with 58 percent against Robredo’s 25 percent.
The surge of support for Robredo-Kiko Pangilinan tandem is evident but it’s not reflected in publicly available surveys. One question is, Can Leni do a Binay, a come-from-behind, last-minute surge (like Jejomar Binay’s great catch-up in 2010 VP race)? Can she raise 22 million votes, as one analyst does the math?
IMAGES SHOW PUBLIC’s FOR LENI. That backing from various sectors -- an underdog, volunteerism-driven campaign, public flash mobs and a truth army against disinformation (as Washington Post puts it) -- has not been seen before in such magnitude and intensity (partly because of technology) in this country.
How do people choose a leader? Could poll research gauge public sentiment at a given period, which lasts long enough until election day, thus the prospect of a Bongbong win? Or, could voices “roar from island to island, shore to shore” and prompt voters to choose Robredo? Would the “heavens listen” and meddle in Philippine elections?
MARCOSES’ RETURN. Warnings are trumpeted by Pinoys to fellow Pinoys and foreign media repeat the cry.
If seen in foreign eyes, what difference do the warnings make? Whatever, the vote is supposedly a collective decision, whose consequences only the Filipino nation will bear in the next six years and, very likely, beyond.
MIKE? OR MARGOT?
Cebu City voters must love one more than the other: which M? Margot says “the City needs a MOM.” Mike offers 21 things he’ll do or continue doing, says “together we can make beautiful things happen.”
Mike Rama -- veteran administrator and legislator (two-term plus mayor, four-term vice mayor, three-term councilor) -- against Margot Osmena -- three-term councilor and 45-day acting mayor.
Mike offers a 21-item program, most of it already started by him or with mayor Edgardo Labella. Margot proposes to fix the problems at City Hall and opposes the privatization of Carbon Market.
Pick Margot, you get 2 mayors.
Pick Dave, the mayor will have a double.
A line that Tomas Osmeña used in a past campaign, was “take one, get two,” referring to himself and another awardee candidate. In his wife Margot’s bid for mayor, the pitch may apply. BOPK hasn’t offered but also hasn’t denied or discouraged the prospect that if Margot wins, a “conjugal leadership” runs City Hall: one from the mayor’s office, the other from the Osmena’s Guadalupe residence. Margot says she’d seek her husband’s advice but will do it “my way,” not Tomas’s.
If independent bet David Tumulak wins, he’ll have the advantage of having a double -- his twin brother Jonathan, who can stand in for the mayor in public events: will save Dave time and confuse those who’d want to harm the chief executive.