THE Philippine economy is forecast to grow faster than initially expected in 2022, following the relaxation of Covid-19 mobility restrictions in the country, the expansion of the vaccination program, and a rebound in investment and household consumption, according to a report released Thursday by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Supplement says the Philippine economy will grow at least 6.5 percent in 2022, up from the bank’s April forecast of six percent. The growth projection for 2023 remains at 6.3 percent.
Downside risks to growth in the second half of 2022 may come from sharper-than-expected slowdowns in major industrial economies, possible sustained elevated global commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions.
“The Philippine economy’s growth momentum has accelerated close to its ideal growth path,” said ADB Philippines country director Kelly Bird. “Strong domestic demand supported by a pick-up in employment and remittance inflows, private investment expansion, and large public infrastructure projects will underpin the country’s recovery from the economic impact of the pandemic.”
Wider Covid-19 vaccination coverage, with adolescents among those getting inoculated, and relatively mild health impacts from the Omicron variant have allowed the government to relax restrictions starting in the first quarter of the year. This in turn spurred a resumption in expanded operations for most private businesses, with the unemployment rate falling to near pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was at six percent in May 2022, down from 7.7 percent a year earlier.
Inflation is forecast to quicken to 4.9 percent and 4.3 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively, on the back of higher global commodity prices. These are up from ADB’s April forecast of 4.2 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent for 2023.
The government is expected to sustain public spending on priority infrastructure projects under the “Build Build Build” program.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.