Saul Alvarez (59-2, 39KOs) is a huge 4-1 favorite for today’s super-fight, and I can understand see why the oddsmakers have pegged it so lopsidedly.
But this Last Rounder thinks Jermell Charlo (35-1, 19KOs) is a live underdog and I have this fight at a closer 60-40 ratio.
Charlo is big, fast and strong. He’s never been knocked down and I’m beginning to see some cracks in Canelo’s armor at the age of 33.
That being said, lets have fun with our three possible scenarios for Alvarez-Charlo
FIRST. Canelo starts out fast, eager to jump on the young gun early. Charlo loses the first few rounds as he seems unsure of himself. He alternates between boxing and brawling but his unwillingness to commit to a particular style has made things easy for the veteran Alvarez who has seen everything in the ring.
In the middle rounds, Charlo manages to land a huge left hook that momentarily stuns Alvarez. He follows it up with a barrage but Alvarez wisely ties him up till the round ends. Alvarez regains his composure over the next few rounds and while
Charlo attempts to mount a vicious rally in the championship rounds, sadly it is too late and Alvarez romps off with a unanimous decision victory.
SECOND. The first few rounds are too close to call, with Charlo leading with his jab and Canelo countering beautifully. In the middle rounds, Canelo starts to score with a brutal body attack, but Charlo fights back and starts landing beautiful uppercuts, leveraging his height beautifully to add more torque to his punches.
In the 9th round, a cut opens up around Canelo’s left eye and this begins to bother him. Charlo wisely targets this and Canelo attempts to turn the fight into a phone booth brawl to protect his eye. The championship rounds are close, but in the end, the judges award the younger man’s effort with a close, but unanimous decision victory.
THIRD. Charlo starts out popping his jab in the first few rounds and seems to have swept the first few rounds over the slow-starting Alvarez. However, Canelo steps up his game and lands several eye-catching counters in the middle rounds.
He shifts to a brutal body attack and a left hook to the liver puts Charlo on one knee in the seventh.
He never really recovers and he slowly begins to wilt under a frenetic pace that Canelo dictates. By the 10th round, the ref has seen enough and rescues a battered and faded Charlo from further punishment.
LAST ROUND. It’s on my kumpare Eddy Basa, who celebrates his birthday this coming week. Cheers!