THE Climate Prediction Center of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction is now on a La Niña watch.
This developed as sea surface temperatures (SST) in June 2010 indicated that the La Niña conditions will develop starting July and August.
In its July 8, 2010 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (Neso) diagnostic discussion a copy of which Sun.Star Davao received through email, it noted that SST anomalies continued to decrease across equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It also noted that negative anomalies have been monitored to be expanding across the central and eastern Pacific and subsurface heat content or the average temperatures in the upper 300-meter of the ocean "also remained below-average during the month."
Subsurface temperature anomalies were also increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific, extending to the surface across the eastern half of the basin.
"Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Niña conditions," the report said.
While in its earlier advisories it noted the growing number of models that predict La Niña conditions, now, it is the majority of the SST models that do.
"Confidence in this outcome is reinforced by the recent performance of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), the large reservoir of colder-than-average subsurface water, and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation," the report said. (Stella A. Estremera)