AND the winner is…!
By late tomorrow evening, we should already have an idea on who is going to be our next governor. Will we see an extension of one family’s two-decades-old reign in the Capitol with a victory by PJ Garcia? Or will Junjun Davide succeed in his second attempt at capturing the province’s most coveted post?
Their fate will be decided by the province’s 1.8 million voters, scattered among seven cities and 44 municipalities. Of the seven cities, Mandaue has the largest voting population with 187,318 followed by Talisay (111,696), Toledo (98,557), Danao (85,279), Carcar (58,088), Naga (55,646) and Bogo (45,468).
In 2010, when he challenged PJ’s sister, Gov. Gwendolyn, Davide won in all the cities except Toledo and Danao where he was routed by 16,585 and 18,983 votes, respectively.
He emerged victorious in Mandaue by 15,357 votes, Bogo (9,056), Talisay (7,781), Naga (1,421) and Carcar (3,733). Significantly, in the two districts (3rd and 5th) where Toledo and Danao, respectively, belong, Davide lost by a combined 122,581 votes.
Whether voters’ behavior in these cities will be the same this year is one of the things that are worth watching on Monday. Some things have changed while some have remained in these cities.
For example, in Mandaue the Liberal Party has been able to consolidate its forces with the recruitment of 6th District Rep. Luigi Quisumbing and former Mandaue City Mayor Teddy Ouano by Mayor Jonas Cortes. Both Quisumbing and Ouano were in the Garcias’ camp in 2010.
In Danao, the Garcias likewise lost another ally in Vice Mayor Nito Durano but were able to gain his two brothers, Mayor Boy and former Mayor Don. Meanwhile, the political equation in Bogo is unchanged with Mayor Junnie Martinez supporting Davide and Daphne Salimbangon, Rep. Benhur’s daughter who is subbing for her aunt, Mariquita firmly in the Garcia fold.
In Toledo, the LP presence remains not established. Davide does not have a candidate for mayor to oppose the ruling Espinosa family. Former Sen. Sonny Osmeña, who is said to have gained ground in his challenge of Rudy Espinosa, is not supporting any gubernatorial candidate.
In Carcar and in Naga, the mayors are staunch Garcia allies. In fact, Nicepuro Apura and Val Chiong openly declared their support for PJ even before 1st District Rep. Eddie Gullas could make his own announcement.
In contrast, Talisay City Mayor Soc Fernandez has always deferred to Gullas. The third-term congressman is seeking to replace Fernandez, who is also on his last term, and is allied with Garcia.
There are towns that could play the role of spoilers in the gubernatorial race because of the size of their voting populations. Heading the list is Consolacion with 62,960 voters. Its mayor, Nene Alegado, is with the LP.
The next town, Liloan, has also the second biggest number of voters with 53,585. The mayor, Duke Frasco, is the son-in-law of Gov. Gwen. The other big towns are Minglanilla (50,819), Barili (46,045), Bantayan (44,854), Daanbantayan (43,575), Argao (42,438), Balamban (40,262), Tuburan (39,076) and San Fernando (37,770).
Watch how these seven cities and 10 towns go tomorrow. They could shape the results of the gubernatorial derby.
(frank.otherside@yahoo.com)