Echaves: The tide

TWO colleges have cut controversial figures in the community here --- Mandaue City College and Talisay City College.

Both have gotten the scrutinizing eye of the Commission on Higher Education (Ched).

The Mandaue City College headed by Dr. Paulus Mariae Cañete, is not recognized by Ched. The other, Talisay City College, has reportedly offered four degree-granting programs not accredited by Ched.

Some private colleges and universities must continue to chuckle mischievously, and even welcome these developments. Their common gripe has always been why Ched breathes down their back about the requirements for offering courses but is not equally strict with state colleges and universities.

Survival is a mean driver. If a school must survive, it must have its own wherewithal to keep itself afloat. It is, thus, not surprising if, in the need to jack up those enrollment numbers, colleges and universities often throw caution to the wind and offer courses even if not yet Ched-approved.

Once upon a time, nursing was the sweetheart college in every university. Even here, colleges offered nursing and hurried up the Ched approval process. Then they hired clinical instructors by the dozens to accommodate the thousands seeking to become nurses.

It was not unusual then that medical doctors took up nursing just to improve their chances at overseas jobs.

But when the US put a hold on hiring nurses from other shores, so did the nursing enrollment dwindle. Then the tide shifted to dentistry, optometry and pharmacy. Schools will adjust where they need to, and learn fast, just to survive.

So will students and their parents. The sway to pharmacy, after nursing proved no longer profitable, was that parents believed that one could put up a small pharmacy and need not seek outside employment after passing the licensure exams.

Just before the new millennium, enrolment in US medical schools dwindled, primarily because it was predicted that there would be a glut of doctors. So, medical schools responded in the 1980s and 1990s with flat enrollments.

Expect the tide to swing again for these medical schools, as well as doctors seeking to migrate to the US.

A study released last week by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMCV) revealed that by year 2025, the number of physicians needed to treat the aging American populace “will outstrip the supply of qualified doctors between 46,000 and 90,000.”

Primary care positions and surgical specialists will account for between half and two-thirds of the shortfall, AAMC said. Darrell Kirch, AAMC president and CEO, expects the physician shortage to grow over the next ten years.

The study estimates a shortage of 12,000 to 31,000 primary care physicians, and a shortfall of 28,000 to 63,000 non-primary care physicians.

The AAMC study presented projections reflecting the potential impact of a variety of health-care delivery and policy scenarios, including the rapid growth in non-physician clinicians, and new payment and delivery models such as patient-centered medical homes and accountable care organizations.

A medical degree takes long. But that will not stem the inevitable tide of enrollment in medical schools.

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