THE last time Negrenses experienced an earthquake was not so long ago. July 6, 2017, to be exact. The 6.5-magnitude earthquake's epicenter was located eight kilometers southwest of Jaro, Leyte, and was felt in parts of Negros Occidental, including Bacolod City.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) recorded Intensity 4 in Sagay City, Intensity 3 in Bacolod City and Calatrava, and Intensity 1 in La Carlota City.
And now as we prepare for the year 2018, Negrenses, it would be difficult to attach the word "Happy" in the New Year. The apt greeting would be "A Safe New Year."
This year, the 2017 Dinagat Island earthquake occurred on February 10, 2017, with a surface wave magnitude of 6.7 off the coast of Surigao del Norte in the Philippines. According to the Phivolcs Earthquake Intensity Scale, the earthquake was an Intensity VII (Destructive) earthquake at maximum.
Just a few days ago, a magnitude 3 earthquake jolted Northern Samar. According to Phivolcs' bulletin, the earthquake, of tectonic origin, struck the province around 12:41 p.m. and had a depth of 102 kilometers.
And now, we read that American scientists warned there could be a big increase in numbers of devastating earthquakes around the world next year. They believe variations in the speed of Earth's rotation could trigger intense seismic activity, particularly in heavily populated tropical regions.
The link between Earth's rotation and seismic activity was highlighted last month in a paper by Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula presented at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America.
Professor Emeritus Bilham is a research scientist with interests in earthquake, landslide, and volcano processes and their impact on society.
Bilham warned that "The correlation between Earth's rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year."
"It is straightforward." He added, "The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes."
For 2018, Professor Bilham warned: "Next year, we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes. We have had it easy this year. So far we have only had about six severe earthquakes. We could easily have 20 a year starting in 2018."
Being located in the Ring of Fire, a major area in the basin of the Pacific Ocean where a large number of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur, Belham's warning is certainly far from assuring that the country can avert a big one. When, where is the big question.
So, pray, pray that Dr. Belham's predictions will be off-the-mark and a big flop. Otherwise, we have to prepare for a big one.
(bqsanc@yahoo.mail)