Panes: 2016: An unfolding resolution

IN 2016, we must resolve to do better. Our resolutions must have the force to change.

If the expectation of tough times should become our everyday reality the pinching of the pockets will be slow. If however the expectation of an economic recession is a false take, then let the good times roll like endless beer kegs. Actually in the world market, nothing seems better to a consumer than the barrels of crude oil overflowing at the pumps. Crude oil, an essential commodity for industry has become cheap. What used to be priced $100/barrel crude has fallen to around $30. Yet at these double digit bargains, takers can only mop up so much of what seems to be (to us) a commodity of indispensable necessity. Economics’ sense makes good sense and in this day and age, has to become part of common sense. Slow demand has resulted to lower prices. Lower prices have not collectively resulted to higher demand. Buyers can only buy so much. The equilibrium has not yet been reached.

For the Philippines which imports at least 90% of its crude oil requirements, low prices in international markets are apparently a boon. In 2013, the country imported 56.34 million barrels, 65 million barrels in 2014. As of the first half of 2015, we are imported 36 million barrels. Are we booming? Are there more vehicles on the streets? Or are there more manufacturing plants in dire need of crude and gasoline in order to churn out more products for distribution? Or are our airlines flying more? Clearly, we are taking advantage of crude oil’s price bargains at a rate even higher than what our exporters shipped out last quarter. According to the Philippine Statistical Authority, the country’s export receipts were down by 10.8% in October 2015 from October 2014. This fall brought about the biggest trade deficit ever in Philippine history. Crude oil imports on the other hand increased in 2014 - by 15.3% from 2013.

I feel like that while surrounded under the country’s blue skies, we have been thrust in an economic abnormality. Without an oil field we can call our own, the price of one liter of diesel at P22 has been similarly priced or even cheaper than the price of one liter of bottled water in the supermarket. And water runs through our streams. Fresh water is our abundant resource and yet it has become priced as crude at the pumps. Also, one liter of gasoline has become even cheaper than one liter of our favorite commercial pale pilsner. And beer is only water, barley as a starch source; yeast for fermentation and hops for flavor. So, what’s going on? We are not in Saudi Arabia, Qatar or anywhere in the oil producing Middle East, aren’t we?

We may not have all the answers now. We do not know if this price disorder is symptomatic of some economic mechanism wanting to be fixed or simply as non-mainstream economists say, waiting to collapse. We can only see the external signs and they can be clear as day. Lately we have been beset by crashing equity markets and our equity markets follow. It matters little to the common Filipino but corporations with a sizeable work force will be finding cash hard to get by when its shares fall. The repercussions do not end with a liquidity crunch.

We are also surrounded by countries devaluing their currencies and our peso cannot resist against the flow. China devalued and our peso moved to weakest for the year. At the end of the day, the developments unfolding all around the world are a mouthful and falls beyond a layman’s academic comprehension. The dynamics of the world are changing. The paradigms are shifting. Power is transferring. And we find that even if we are brighter than most, mightier than most and more beautiful than most, we have not been strong enough to stand on our own. We may be resilient as bamboos but in the final analysis, we are merely pawns willing to give up our liberties in exchange of some higher consideration like a highest bidder. History is replete with this allegation.

If by any chance all this blah-blah means anything, we need to have extraordinary strength beyond our reliance in government. Government is good but its persons will be pressed to cope with forces of external change. We will all be in the same boat. Perhaps, this should be our resolution in 2016 – we need to find who we are within as a people. Personal initiative will matter. Our nationalism was inflamed by Heneral Luna – bayan muna bago sarili. This could be a good beginning to a journey long overdue and we should continue. Yet, our love for nationalism is not the end. The globe has been already wired and our managers have missed the chance to bring us to true independence and self sufficiency. We may be fiercely loyal to many editions of Ford F150s, Levis 501s and Apple Iphones but when we pause to truly think about it, there is more to our collective heritage than just being America’s Little Brown Brother in the Far East. We labor too much to have what they have but think too little of what we can for ourselves. In 2016, in the midst of a changing world, we should find time to seek the equilibrium. Perhaps, in the midst of falling darkness, we will find the answers.

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