A RELIABLE source shared the result of a privately-commissioned Pulse Asia survey done on March 21-25, or right after the second presidential debate in Cebu. It showed Rody Duterte getting 26 percent, Grace Poe with 24, Mar Roxas at 22, and Jojo Binay down to 20.
It practically confirmed what I sensed was happening. The presidential match is now three-cornered. Binay’s ship has begun to sink. Now, let’s see where the allies will go.
The day of the debate, we already knew the political grounds in Cebu was shifting. One Cebu confirmed the next day talks that the party was leaving Binay. The Garcias declared their support for Duterte Saturday evening. One Cebu vowed to give Digong one million votes in Cebu.
Earlier Saturday, Toledo Mayor Sonny Osmeña mobilized more people for Digong than what he did for the vice president.
Meanwhile, Binay’s bosom friend Manila Mayor Erap Estrada likewise junked him a few days later in favor of Poe, the former president’s inaanak.
Will a major Binay ally jump over to the administration? Maybe. If Pampanga Gov. Baby Pineda, a staunch supporter of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, turned around and now supports Roxas and Robredo, what can prevent Binay allies from doing so?
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Two developments could influence the political situation. First, the shooting of protesting farmers in Kidapawan during a police dispersal. Second, the smouldering anti-Marcos sentiments of a generation incensed by the brazen twisting of history.
One, two farmers were killed while a host of others were wounded. On the other side, police claimed two policemen were also seriously injured during the melee.
The farmers only demanded for rice in the face of severe drought. Even if the protesters had Leftist support and threw rocks first, these could never justify retaliation with live bullets.
The carnage is developing into a major crisis for the administration barely a month before the May 9 national elections.
Because the protesting farmers belong to the Makabayan bloc in Congress, I was not surprised to see Cong. Neri Colmenares to immediately be at the side of the farmers. The Kidapawan police apparently thought they could get away with murder. But not with a fighter like Colmenares taking up the cudgels for the farmers.
Second, the anti-Marcos movement here and in Manila has set April 17 to make a point. It seems, not only the organized anti-dictatorship activists before are coming together to spark an anti-Marcos movement. In Cebu, the local Anti-Bongbong Marcos Coalition (ABC) has set a major mobilization not just of anti-Marcos personalities during the dictatorship years. More on this in my next column.
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This will be an interesting week for political observers, like me.
After Digong’s Toledo sortie, Sen. Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero and Colmenares will visit Cebu tomorrow. Unlike Duterte whose activities start at noon until evening, Poe’s itinerary starts with an early morning motorcade at the province’s first district tomorrow. They will have breakfast with San Fernando Mayor and congressional candidate Abe Canoy.
In Ace Durano’s territory Danao City, Poe and company will meet Bakud’s barangay and sitio leaders. Poe will end the day with a rally in Lapu-Lapu City. Durano support was a political coup of Senator Escudero.
Expect the local media to, however, mob Colmenares for updates on the Kidapawan carnage. The affected farmers are supporters of the Makabayan coalition, Neri’s constituents. The senatorial candidate immediately flew to Cotabato to be with the farmers. He was there with the farmers trapped in the Methodist church. He was there to welcome rice donations from people like actor Robin Padilla. Unlike other politicians who are trying to use the bloodshed for political purposes, Colmenares was there because he is one of their national leaders. In a way, he is the voice of the farmers at the national level.
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On April 8, it will be the turn of Mar Roxas to show how strong he is in Cebu. I gathered that he will be in Naga City for a major mobilization of Cong. Samsam Gullas’s Alayon and Junjun Davide’s Liberal Party (LP).
Of course, this demonstrates Mayor Val Chiong’s resolve to deliver for the LP candidates at the national and provincial levels.
The Naga mobilization is doubly interesting. We always hear talk that the strength of Roxas lies in his political machinery. We will get a glimpse of this machinery at work this Friday.
(@anol_cebu in Twitter)