THE heat is on! The election-mania is getting crazier as E-DAY draws near. In the middle of the election period, those who are running for public positions have now doubled their efforts in campaigning for themselves, and quintupled their efforts in campaigning against their political foes. Proclamation rallies and campaign caravans are now staged in every barangay of the 7,502 islands of the archipelago.
I think that no one here in the Philippines is not affected with the election fever. Street corners, dark eskinitas and mga suking tindahan have become hubs of election discussions, and every Juan or Maria has become either instant election or political experts or professional campaigners for their own manok sa labanan or demolition men against their manok’s opponents.
Elections here in the Philippines is like a fiesta. A fiesta is incomplete without the chaos and the crazy antics of circus artists, fire eaters, high wire performers, and many more. A regular crowd drawer is election debates where candidates face each other head on, presenting their platforms for governance, and programs for the improvement of a greater majority of the populace. The mudslinging happens after they turn their backs away from each other.
They all say the same thing. They won the debate, assuring them of their win on Election Day. In the same way that the results of a survey done by one group differ from the results that another group conducted. All claiming that a particular candidate is leading the race, and both of them are credible research firms. How can that be? At least one of them is not publishing the truth!
When this happens, other aspects of the survey are put into question. The first and most glaring aspect is the group of respondents of the survey. A taxi driver mentioned that he has not heard of any of his family members, relatives, friends, neighbors and enemies who responded to any survey being conducted.” “These people,” he added, “may even be fictitious.
Another point raised is the sample size or the number of people surveyed. How can the perspective of only 4,000 or 1,200 people be representative how the rest of 100 million Filipinos think? It cannot be a used to make generalizations.
Other elements of the survey which are highly technical in nature are frowned upon simply because some do not understand them, like the significance level, sampling error margin, etc.
When Filipinos encounter something they cannot understand or explain, usually these are just ignored, or worse, discredited. I heard an old lady say, “Niloloko lang tayo niyang survey na yan. Andami-daming mga sinasabi na di ko naintindihan. Nabayaran lang yang mga survey firms na yan para palabasin ang resulta na gusto.” Which I think is very unfair for survey firms. I, myself, conducted research, including a political survey similar to those done by these big firms, and it is really difficult to gather data in the field, walking under the sweltering heat of the sun, or being drench by rain, or being almost bitten by a stray dog.
Let me provide simple explanations for the jargon or figures that we often see in the text of the surveys for us not to be scared of them, and for them to be more useful for you in making informed choices.
Response rate is the percentage of the total number of people asked to answer the survey who actually agreed to answer the survey. Sampling error margin or error margin just means that it is the percentage you can add or subtract to the result of the survey, and can be considered as the predicted end result in the actual elections. If one is playing darts, with a higher error margin, there is a lower chance that you will hit the bullseye.
How about the contention regarding the number of people surveyed? If the rules of statistics is strictly followed, the sample size are valid to represent the whole population. However, when comparing sample size, the margin of error will be higher if the sample size is is smaller, say 1,200 compared to a sample of 4,000, the margin of error is higher, and was also disclosed in the press releases. The error margins are 4 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. For example in the latest survey for the Vice Presidential race, Escudero got 33 percent, and if subjected to the error margin of 4 percent, a probable result for the elections is that Escudero may get a percentage of the votes ranging from 29 percent to 37 percent.
I believe the more controversial aspect of these surveys are actually the agenda of the people who want these surveys. These political surveys follow essentially the same method for market surveys. Market surveys are commissioned by big business firms for them to determine their market share. Afterwhich, they release these results in their advertisements, using this information to persuade more people to buy their product.
It is this same model that is abused by some for political surveys. Voters are more likely to be persuaded to vote for the person leading in the surveys. Some of our fellow countrymen would actually do this. Because they do not want their votes to be put to waste or “sayang”, they would rather vote for that person leading because it is “mas sigurado” or sure-win.
In conclusion, these surveys are legit, I assure you. I am a statistician myself, and I can vouch that the rules of statistics were properly applied. So the results of the survey are unbiased products of the mathematical/statistical processes that were applied on the raw data collected.
However, the quality of the results is just as good as the data where they are based from. So if the source is not good, the results as well will not be good. Garbage-in, garbage out! We can only assume that with the same integrity in following statistics, the same was applied in the collection.
For the voting public, I leave you with this lingering thought. We should be more aware that these surveys are just to feast the eyes on, not where we will base our decision in voting on. We should make decisions based on our own consciences and beliefs on who can really bring our country back to its former glory.
Be wise, be informed. Our children’s children’s future is at stake here. Vote wisely!
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Disclaimer: A few weeks back, I made mention of the seminar, Ike Pono. This is to inform everyone that I am in no way connected with the organizers of the seminar that is scheduled for April 22 to 24 and April 29 to May 1, 2016. Thank you.
Follow me on Twitter: @jpthinkingalound and Instagram: @jpekonomista.