The signals remain mixed. There is still no clear direction on how the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran will end or when. But even as there is uncertainty, an immediate concern is already taking shape. When the war ends, will prices go down or will we be told, again, that they cannot?
In recent days, more vehicles have returned to Cebu’s streets. Just a week or so earlier, when fuel prices went way past P100 per liter, fewer vehicles were seen on the roads as motorists cut back on trips. The decrease in gasoline and diesel prices last week is being seen as a sign that conditions are improving. Or at least stabilizing.
But we have seen this pattern before. Prices go up quickly in response to local disturbances or global shocks. They adjust overnight, sometimes even before there are actual supply problems. When the crisis ends, any reversal in prices is slow, partial, or absent. The usual lament is that prices go up fast, but come down slowly and by smaller margins.
The war that began on Feb. 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, has once again shown how vulnerable local economies like Cebu are to conflicts in far away places. The war led to higher fuel prices and, by extension, the cost of nearly everything else.
In Cebu, the impact was immediate and visible. When fuel prices went up, almost everything followed. Delivery costs went up and were passed on to consumers through higher prices of food and basic goods. And when businesses raised prices citing higher fuel costs, those increases tend to stay up.
This is the real risk now. Not just high prices during the war, but the normalization of those prices after it.
It may seem premature, even wishful thinking, to talk about price rollbacks when the war itself remains unresolved. But if we wait until the conflict ends, the higher prices will have already settled in, explained away as the new normal.
When the war ends, who will ensure that prices go back to pre-war levels? Will fuel companies roll back increases as quickly as they imposed them? Will food prices be lowered, or will consumers be told that prevailing costs will have to remain unchanged?
There will always be reasons to keep the current increased prices. We will hear of operational costs, supply disruptions, and buffers. These may be valid, but they also become convenient excuses to maintain higher margins.
This is where government action is needed. Monitoring of prices should not end when the situation stabilizes. It should intensify. Cebuano consumers deserve transparency in pricing with explanations of why prices go up and why they are not coming down.
The next consequence of this conflict is not the hike in prices of goods that we see now, but the higher cost of living we may never be able to undo.