The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) may influence voter choices in the May 12, 2025 mid-term elections.
There will be voters who may choose Duterte allies, those who support him, as he defends himself against crimes against humanity charges related to his war on drugs before the ICC. They might think that electing people supportive of him would increase his chances of being cleared or at least being granted compassion during his incarceration.
There will be voters, however, who would exclude Duterte allies from their ballots and select those who have backed the ICC move for accountability for human rights violations. For them, the elections are not a race between two political camps, Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Their anti-Duterte stance does not necessarily mean they go for Marcos and his allies. Marcos had allowed Duterte’s arrest as part of the Philippines’ commitment to the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol). Marcos said it wasn’t because of the ICC, which the Philippines had withdrawn from in 2018 during the term of Duterte.
Some who applauded Duterte’s arrest categorically said their stand did not mean they supported Marcos. Their stand, they said, was for justice finally being served for the thousands of victims of the drug war and their families.
The campaign period for candidates for the Senate and the party-list elections is ongoing, while bets for local posts and the House of Representatives begin their campaign next week, on March 28. The start of local campaigns will bring the national debate to the grassroots level, shaping the races for elective positions in cities and provinces across the country.
It will be interesting to see if candidates will be pressured into stating their stand, whether against the arrest of Duterte on one hand or in support of the ICC to make Duterte accountable and the government’s decision to arrest him on the other. While some candidates expressed affinity with Duterte, there will be others who could soften their support. Some may find there is no middle ground, especially if Duterte’s camp calls in political favors from the past. Will they align or distance themselves from Duterte?
And there will be those who will focus on choosing candidates upholding human rights and justice.
Or perhaps voters may prioritize pressing concerns such as poverty, the rising cost of living and unemployment over the legality of Duterte’s arrest. It wouldn’t be the first time as one could relate it to the election of United States President Donald Trump who focused on the economy in his campaign and won. What happened after he assumed office at the White House is a different matter.
In the end, real power may not rest with international courts or political camps, but with Filipinos casting their votes this May. Will they choose loyalty to a leader, justice, or something else entirely?