EXPORTERS in Cebu have so far maintained stable trade volumes despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and surging global oil prices, but industry leaders are warning of mounting risks in the coming weeks.
Philippine Exporters Confederation-Cebu executive director Fred Escalona said the sector has yet to see a significant drop in output, though concerns are rising over supply chain pressures.
“So far, the trade volume has not changed at the moment. What we are worried about is the next 30 days, as you know, some exporters are importing their raw materials,” Escalona said.
He identified so-called “creative sectors” — including furniture, home décor, and fashion accessories — as among the most vulnerable, citing their heavy reliance on imported inputs.
“The most vulnerable sectors would be the creative sectors… as these sectors rely basically on imported inputs or raw materials,” he said.
While some firms have begun adjusting operations, Escalona noted that responses remain limited.
“Yes, but only partially and reactively. Cebu exporters are already adjusting timelines but most are still in a ‘contingency mode,’ and not yet in a fully stabilized adjustment regime,” he added.
Early warning signs are also emerging on the demand side, although impacts in Cebu remain contained for now.
“Though early signs point to order cancellations and reduced demand nationally, for Cebu, it is still selective and emerging, thus not yet a widespread collapse,” Escalona said.
Jobs at risk
If elevated fuel prices persist, Escalona cautioned that employment in the export sector could come under gradual pressure rather than immediate disruption.
“The impact on Cebu’s export sector will not be immediate mass layoffs, but a progressive squeeze on employment that unfolds in stages. Of course, this will differ by sector,” he said.
Looking ahead, Escalona said slower export growth for Central Visayas is becoming increasingly likely under sustained high fuel costs.
“Yes, slower growth in Central Visayas this year is not only possible but increasingly likely if high fuel prices persist,” he said.
In an earlier statement, Philexport expressed concern over rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, warning that the conflict is already heightening global uncertainty, disrupting logistics routes and triggering volatility in energy markets.
The group said export industries such as electronics, garments, processed food and furniture could face rising shipping costs, higher insurance premiums and longer transit times as airspace restrictions and shipping rerouting disrupt global trade routes.
Trade performance in Central Visayas was a bit challenging in 2025, as exports fell 9.5 percent in 2025 to $4.53 billion from $5.01 billion amid weaker global demand, while imports slipped 1.8 percent to $8.69 billion, according to the Department of Economy, Planning and Development-Central Visayas (DepDev 7).
Export markets remained concentrated in East Asia, with Japan as the top destination, followed by South Korea, Hong Kong, China, the United States, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, the Netherlands and Thailand. China remained the region’s biggest import source, rising 2.8 percent to $3.05 billion, ahead of Japan and the United States.
Key imports include semiconductor and electronics materials, fuel, coal, animal feed and food oils.
Before the Middle East tension, DepDev 7 sees a potential export rebound in 2026, driven by improved global demand—particularly from the US if trade uncertainties ease—and new opportunities under the Philippines–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which could boost exports such as carrageenan. / KOC