GLOBAL business strategist Dr. Brian To has called on Cebu’s business and government leaders to “take the lead” in driving economic growth and innovation, urging the province to act independently of the national capital amid signs of stagnation and uncertainty in the wider Philippine economy.
Speaking before entrepreneurs, executives and local officials on last Friday’s Cebu Province Economic Forum 3.0, To said the country’s current economic and political landscape—marked by high debt, a weakening peso and slow-moving reforms—has left both foreign and domestic investors hesitant to commit new capital.
“The economy here in the provinces has basically been frozen,” To said. “Nobody is willing to make investment decisions—foreigners aren’t investing, and even locals are waiting. The question is, what are we waiting for?”
He urged Cebu’s business community to take matters into its own hands by investing in local industries, nurturing talent and fostering innovation.
“Cebu must invest in itself,” he said. “Let’s invest in our people, in our businesses and in our province. Let’s not wait for something to happen in Luzon. Let’s make it happen here.”
To, a global strategist and senior fellow at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and advisor to multinational corporations and governments, said the Philippines’ growing dependence on debt is a major risk. With the national debt now at around P17 trillion, he warned that the country’s fiscal space is narrowing rapidly.
“P17 trillion is not trivial,” he said. “Your great-grandkids won’t even be able to pay that back.”
He noted that much of the debt is denominated in foreign currencies, exposing the country to further strain as the peso continues to depreciate.
“You’re trying to pay with pesos—I wouldn’t take your pesos. No value now,” he said, warning that an unchecked borrowing spree could erode investor confidence and weaken the economy’s foundations.
Cebu has right ingredients
Despite these national headwinds, To said Cebu remains uniquely positioned to attract investments that the rest of the country may struggle to secure.
“Cebu has the ingredients—talent, connectivity and community spirit,” he said. “Cebuanos have always been resourceful. You can either wait for the national government to fix things, or you can start fixing them here.”
He cited opportunities in micro-manufacturing, electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, artificial intelligence and robotics, sectors he said could transform Cebu into a center for industrial innovation in Southeast Asia.
“If you look at EV charging stations, they’re not complex. You can make them here,” To said. “There’s no reason Cebu cannot be the EV manufacturing capital of Asia.”
To also criticized the Philippines’ overreliance on consumption-driven growth, noting that local economies must return to “making” rather than merely “buying.”
“We are a consumer-driven economy. We want people to buy,” he said. “But we also need to make—make jobs, make products, make opportunities.”
Education is key
A key enabler of that shift, To said, is education.
He warned that the Philippines’ declining education outcomes—already among the lowest in Asia based on international assessments—pose a major threat to long-term
competitiveness.
“Our kids are already two to three years behind because of the pandemic,” he said. “We used to do so well in math and science. Now we’re near the bottom.”
He urged both government and industry to invest heavily in technical and vocational training, especially in areas like data analytics, computer science, and automation.
“We need to prepare our people for the new economy,” he said. “Education is not optional. If we don’t invest in our people, we have no future.”
To’s remarks come at a time when foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism—once strong pillars of Cebu’s growth—have both slowed.
“There was a time when the Japanese, Chinese, Koreans, and Europeans came here in large numbers,” he said. “You don’t see that anymore. Tourism is down, FDI is down. Where’s the fresh capital coming from?”
Investor sentiment
He added that perceptions of corruption and political instability continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
“When investors think you’re dishonest, they take their capital elsewhere,” he said, citing the recent withdrawal of aid by South Korea as a sign of eroding confidence. “It’s like the whole country is corrupt—all corrupt. When others think that we are dishonest, no wonder they won’t change our money.”
Still, To said Cebu’s private sector has a strong opportunity to demonstrate leadership and restore trust through ethical business practices and community-driven growth.
“Cebuanos help each other. This spirit is what will help us thrive without depending on Imperial Manila,” he said.
He encouraged Cebu’s business chambers, universities, and local governments to collaborate on programs that build new industries, strengthen innovation capacity, and promote inclusive growth.
“We used to be proud to say, ‘I’m from Cebu,’” To said. “We have to get that pride back—not just in words, but in results.”
To emphasized that the province’s resilience and entrepreneurial energy are its strongest assets.
“Cebu can lead the Philippines in innovation, not follow,” To added. “The question is: do you believe?”
The Cebu Province Economic Forum 3.0 was organized by the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry in partnership with the Cebu Province. / KOC