ELECTRICITY demand across Asia-Pacific economies could rise by as much as 96 percent by 2060 as electrification, data-center growth and changes in transport reshape energy use, according to a new outlook released by Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) researchers.
The ninth edition of the Apec Energy Demand and Supply Outlook projects electricity generation climbing to 32,690 terawatt-hours by 2060 from 18,971 TWh in 2022 under current policies, reflecting a broad shift away from direct fossil fuel use toward electricity in transport, buildings and parts of industry.
“The outlook supports member economies in navigating the evolving energy landscape by identifying key challenges and opportunities in the energy sector,” said Kazutomo Irie, chairman and president of the Asia-Pacific Energy Research Centre, which produces the report.
Transport electrification is a major driver of the projected demand increase. Electric vehicles are expected to account for about 60 percent of the vehicle fleet by 2060 under current policies and as much as 96 percent if economies meet stated targets, sharply cutting oil use but significantly boosting electricity demand.
In buildings, power consumption continues to rise, led by the rapid expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence workloads, even as efficiency gains slow growth in other energy uses, the report said.
On the supply side, renewables are projected to account for 55 percent of electricity generation by 2060 under current policies, up from 26 percent in 2022, and 64 percent if economies meet their targets. Coal supply is forecast to fall by 56 percent under current policies and 74 percent if targets are achieved, while natural gas supply rises 58 percent under current policies, underscoring its continued role in the transition.
APERC estimates cumulative investment of $57 trillion in the power and hydrogen sectors between 2025 and 2060 under current policies, rising to $91 trillion if full emissions-reduction targets are pursued. While reduced fossil fuel use could generate savings of about $5.4 trillion, these would be outweighed by spending required for renewable generation, grids, storage, hydrogen infrastructure and backup capacity.
“No economy can secure reliable, affordable and sustainable energy alone,” said Eduardo Pedrosa, noting that policy choices over the next decade would have an outsized impact on investment flows, prices and supply security across the region.
As electricity demand grows faster than overall energy use, the outlook said economies face narrowing windows to expand grids, deploy low-carbon technologies and manage the transition without raising volatility or costs. / KOC