LEON, the 12th tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine area of responsibility this year, has intensified into a severe tropical storm (STS), according to the state weather bureau on Monday, Oct. 28, 2024.
While STS Leon is not expected to directly impact Central Visayas, its trough is anticipated to bring moderate to strong winds and moderate to rough sea conditions in the region, said a weather specialist from Mactan.
“We observed in Central Visayas that so far this week, we’re still far from issuing a gale warning; however, we are seeing moderate to rough sea conditions, with waves reaching up to 3.3 meters in Central Visayas,” said Jhomer Eclarino of the the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Visayas.
“We are still monitoring the situation, and it remains dangerous for smaller sea vessels,” he added.
Eclarino said Cebu can expect generally fair weather on Nov. 1-2. He noted a possibility of rain, but explained that any rainfall would likely be limited to isolated showers and localized thunderstorms.
As of 5 p.m. Monday, the center of STS Leon was estimated at 725 kilometers east of Echague, Isabela.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 was hoisted over several areas in Luzon, including Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista), the eastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan), and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto).
Pagasa said the wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone.
“Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction,” it said.
It added that minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any areas under TCWS No. 1.
Pagasa also warned that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted during the occurrence of Leon is TCWS No. 3 or No. 4, especially in extreme northern Luzon.
A gale warning will be hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of northern Luzon on Monday afternoon, said Pagasa.
Based on Pagasa’s forecast, Leon will move west-northwestward Monday through Tuesday morning, Oct. 29, then turn northwestward until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday evening, Oct. 31 or early morning Friday, Nov. 1.
After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, Leon will then turn to the northeast toward the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning or afternoon, Pagasa added.
Pagasa is not discounting the possibility of a further westward shift in the track forecast of Leon but stressed that it will be within the limits of the forecast confidence cone.
“As such, a landfall or close approach scenario on Batanes is not ruled out,” it said.
“This tropical cyclone is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category within 24 hours. Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that Leon will reach super typhoon category during its period of closest approach to Batanes,” it added. / DPC, LMY