The thanksgiving mass had just concluded when I got inside the social hall of the IEC Pavilion three Tuesdays ago. The place was teeming with people and the mood celebratory. It was, after all the joint birthday celebration of Tommy and Margot Osmeña.
I stayed only briefly after greeting the couple and was unable to listen to the political speeches which, I was sure, were forthcoming. I would later read that evening, Councilor Nestor Archival formally accepted Tommy’s offer to be the Bando Osmeña Pundok Kauswagan (BOPK) standard bearer in next year’s election in Cebu City with Tommy himself as running mate.
It’s a formidable tandem despite the BOPK’s two successive losses in the city. Any politician who dismisses the party as a spent force will be committing a big mistake. That much was apparent on July 30 when well-wishers came from many different barangays, each new arrival greeted with loud applause after their introduction.
They did not look lost and defeated at all. The enthusiasm was palpable. If Tommy intended a political tour de force for his birthday party, he certainly got his wish.
It is too early, of course, to describe Archival as frontrunner among the four declared or rumored candidates for mayor. But he’s in the mix, Osmeña’s describing him as “not a good candidate” notwithstanding. (For context, what Osmeña said was that Archival is not a good candidate but will make a good mayor. The “undersell” is probably a “marketing strategy” given our penchant for the underdog.)
How does he compare with the other aspirants?
Duly-elected Mayor Mike Rama remains the favorite. His campaign style is decidedly melodramatic to the point of being comical but it resonates with his base. Besides, he has the support of former President Rodrigo Duterte who remains influential among Cebuano voters.
Acting Mayor Raymond Alvin Garcia’s political fortune will always be linked to that of his powerful aunt, Gov. Gwen Garcia, who to this day looks unbeatable in the province. Rama, however, believes that the governor will be a non-factor in the city; he has even proposed that city residents be allowed to vote for governor less than a year after he had suggested that he would one day hold office at the Capitol.
Gwen Garcia’s clout in the city is indeed untested. This will be her first foray into city politics if and when. But anyone who underestimates her influence does so at his own peril. Her stranglehold of the province did not come in a silver platter. She earned it through astute political maneuvering.
Raymond does not have the political base that is as solid as that of Osmeña or Rama but the support of Gwen should narrow the gap. That and the expected support coming from Malacañang should install him as co-favorite.
Joey Daluz is probably still looking for a political godfather. There was speculation earlier that he would get Vice President Sara Duterte’s nod but the family’s quarrel with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has unified the Dutertes, a development that has rendered unlikely the possibility of father and daughter endorsing separate candidates especially in a crucial battleground that is Cebu City.
Joey’s advantage is that he started his campaign earlier than any of his prospective rivals. His Panaghiusa is disciplined and well-organized. One need only to look at the Daluz posters sprouting all over the city especially in the mountain barangays to see that.
But a four-cornered fight will definitely work to Archival’s advantage because it will divide the anti-Osmeña votes. The BOPK candidate for mayor has consistently garnered at least 200,000 votes in previous elections except in 2022 when the so-called Unity Ticket brought more votes than usual for Rama.
Archival will make a good mayor, Osmeña assures. For that to happen, he has to win first. That is Tommy’s challenge.