MCWD braces for El Niño

MCWD is preparing 40.4 million liters per day (MLD) in additional water supply to cushion the projected impact of El Niño, but the measures fall 2.6 MLD short of the 43 MLD surface-water loss expected at the height of the dry spell. The district is also already losing production due to rotational brownouts.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Visayas weather specialist Jhomer Eclarino said Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies have reached 2.1 degrees Celsius, placing the current El Niño in the “Strong” category in September. It could reach “Very Strong” by the end of 2026 and persist into the first half of 2027, he said at the Kapihan sa PIA media forum on Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026.

“We have to take seriously the negative, impending impacts of El Niño,” Eclarino said.

He said El Niño does not mean there will be no rain. Parts of Central Visayas have continued to see thunderstorms, including those associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. But rainfall in the region was down 89 percent in August. September has so far recorded a 52-percent reduction. For October, Pagasa expects rainfall to range from below normal to near normal.

Surface water at risk

MCWD gets about 165 MLD from groundwater and 90 MLD from surface water, said Rainier Quiñones, manager of its Production and Distribution Department. Deep wells are expected to be less affected by El Niño, while surface sources, including Mananga Dam and the Buhisan River, are more vulnerable.

At the peak of El Niño, expected from December 2026 to June 2027, the 90 MLD surface water supply could fall to around 47 MLD, a reduction of 43 MLD.

MCWD is drawing on its experience in 2024, when daily production fell by about 40 to 50 MLD, from around 290 to about 240 MLD at the height of the dry conditions. The district has been preparing since April, when Pagasa Visayas began regular briefings and has been holding regular internal meetings.

To offset the expected shortfall, MCWD plans to make up for the gap through several measures.

Offsetting losses

These include an additional 10 MLD more from its Mambaling desalination facility, raising supply from five to 15 MLD starting December, five MLD from the Opaw, Mandaue desalination facility and an increase in Carmen Bulk Water supply from 30 MLD to between 37 and 40 MLD.

Eight new pumping stations are also set to start operating before the end of the year and are expected to produce about 5.8 MLD.

MCWD is also targeting a reduction in its non-revenue water from 29 percent to 27 percent, which Quiñones said could yield the equivalent of about five MLD.

Four additional pumping stations awaiting power connections from Visayan Electric Co. and Mactan Electric Co. (Meco) are expected to contribute another 3.2 MLD.

All measures combined are expected to provide about 40.4 MLD additional supply.

MCWD general manager John Dx Lapid said the utility is also installing booster stations and reviving deep wells. It has contacted suppliers for desalinated water as an additional source and is examining whether water can be delivered through existing pipelines using hydraulic adjustments instead of relying only on water trucks. He acknowledged that desalinated water is costly, but said the utility is preparing for a worst-case scenario in which rainfall is significantly reduced from November into early 2027.

Brownouts already cutting output

MCWD’s normal production capacity is about 290 MLD, but two- to three-hour rotational brownouts over the past three to four months have reduced average production to around 268 MLD. Output has recently improved to 272 to 273 MLD as the power situation eased.

Quiñones said MCWD has asked Visayan Electric to exempt its pumping stations from brownouts, but short notice makes it difficult to deploy backup generators. Many independent pumping stations have no backup power and the district relies on Visayan Electric and Meco.

Generators are available for some major facilities, but deploying them with only a two to three hours’ notice is difficult. He appealed for earlier coordination among the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), Visayan Electric, Meco and MCWD whenever brownouts are expected.

NGCP Cebu-Bohol Area senior manager for operations and maintenance Marcelino Bagatsolon II said the company has audited its transmission lines and substations to reduce the chance of line trips that could affect industries and other consumers.

He urged the public to stay far from transmission lines when flying kites during the hot, dry months, since contact with a high-voltage line could trip the system. NGCP does not prohibit kite flying, he said.

What consumers can expect

MCWD expects reduced water availability in parts of Metro Cebu, particularly the southern area, and is preparing for possible scheduled rationing. The public will be informed ahead of any changes in supply schedules. Its El Niño committee will begin regular meetings in October, ahead of the stronger effects projected for November.

Water rates remain unchanged from previous months and last year, Quiñones said. As a government-owned and -controlled corporation, MCWD cannot raise rates on its own and any adjustment requires approval from the Local Water Utilities Administration or the appropriate agency.

MCWD will continue coordinating with Pagasa and its power-sector partners to protect production and maintain supply, he said. / CAV, DPC