THE Metropolitan Cebu Water District (MCWD) is rolling out early contingency measures, including rationing, water deliveries, and supply augmentation, as it braces for a projected deficit of 43,000 cubic meters per day amid the possible onset of El Niño this year.
MCWD’s assessment shows that several of its major water sources may significantly decline under drier conditions. Production from Jaclupan is expected to drop from 25,000 cubic meters per day to 7,000 cubic meters per day, while the Buhisan Dam could fall from 5,000 cubic meters per day to zero.
Supply from Lusaran Bulk Water may decrease from 20,000 to 10,000 cubic meters per day, while the Compostela Bulk Water Supply could also decline from 10,000 cubic meters per day to zero.
These reductions could result in a total deficit of around 43,000 cubic meters per day, equivalent to about 15 percent of MCWD’s total production.
To mitigate the impact, MCWD plans to implement water rationing in affected areas, including parts of Talisay City and Cebu City, while fast-tracking the installation of pumping stations in 11 public schools in Cebu City.
The water district will also deploy water trucks to remote and elevated areas, tap additional sources, accelerate well development and pipeline interconnections, and secure supplementary bulk water supply, including desalinated water.
A public advisory campaign promoting water conservation is also being prepared.
Preparations were initiated after MCWD General Manager John Dx Lapid sought a technical briefing from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to better anticipate conditions in the coming months.
During the briefing, PAGASA said the Philippines is currently under El Niño–Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions following a weak La Niña.
However, there is a 62 percent chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, with the probability rising to at least 83 percent by year-end.
Engineer Jhomer Eclarino, PAGASA’s chief weather forecasting specialist in the Visayas, said El Niño does not necessarily mean all areas will experience drought simultaneously, noting that some regions may still receive rainfall.
PAGASA forecasts generally near-normal rainfall from April to July, with May expected to be wetter but also the hottest month.
By August, rainfall may fall below normal before returning to near-normal levels in September.
April is expected to bring more dry days in Cebu, while the following months may see increased rainfall.
However, extreme heat remains a concern, with Cebu’s highest recorded temperature at 37 degrees Celsius and heat indices exceeding 50 degrees Celsius.
Around eight to 16 tropical cyclones are expected this year, although fewer may directly affect the country during El Niño, as storms tend to recurve.
If El Niño develops later in the year, it may persist into 2027, typically lasting eight to 12 months at full strength.
MCWD warned that prolonged dry conditions could reduce soil moisture and groundwater recharge, affecting underground water reserves, which serve as a primary water source for Metro Cebu.
Historical records show that strong El Niño events, such as those in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016, brought moderate to severe drought across parts of the country, including Cebu.
With the likelihood of El Niño increasing, MCWD urged the public to begin conserving water early as part of a collective effort to cushion its impact. (CAV)